The percent of stocks above their 200-day moving average is a breadth gauge: the share of an index's members whose latest close sits above their own 200-day simple average. At the October 16, 2026 close, 51.7% of current S&P 500 members cleared that bar, against 68.8% of the TSX 60 proxy basket. Read it as a participation meter, not a price target. It tells you how many stocks are actually carrying a trend, and right now the answer for the S&P 500 is barely half.
That matters because the index itself looks healthier than its members. On the same October 16 close, the S&P 500 index sat 5.34% above its own 200-day average. A market can post records on a shrinking base of leaders. This gauge is how you catch it.
What the indicator measures
StockCharts' ChartSchool defines percent above moving average as a breadth oscillator: the number of index members trading above a chosen moving average, divided by the total number of members. The 200-day version captures long-term trends. The 50-day version, built on a shorter window, reacts faster and swings harder.
Every stock gets one vote. The largest company in the index and the smallest count the same. That is the whole point: a cap-weighted index can be pulled higher by a handful of giants, while this gauge asks how many stocks are actually in uptrends. StockCharts publishes ready-made versions under symbols such as $SPXA50R for the S&P 500 50-day and $TSXA50R for the S&P/TSX Composite.
Where it stands: the October 16, 2026 readings
Traders On Trend computed the readings below from Financial Modeling Prep end-of-day closes. The US universe is the current S&P 500 constituent list. The Canadian universe is the 64 Toronto-listed holdings of the iShares S&P/TSX 60 ETF ($XIU.TO), used as a TSX 60 proxy.
| Universe (Oct 16, 2026 close) | Above 200-day | Above 50-day |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 current members | 258 of 499 = 51.7% | 226 of 501 = 45.1% |
| XIU.TO holdings (TSX 60 proxy) | 44 of 64 = 68.8% | 37 of 64 = 57.8% |
Two things jump out. First, Canada is broader than the US by about 17 percentage points on the 200-day measure. Second, the 50-day reading sits below the 200-day reading on both sides of the border. Shorter-term trends are weaker than longer-term ones, so the most recent damage is still being repaired.
The monthly series since July 2025: a drop to 40.4% and a rebound
One reading is a snapshot. The trend in the reading is the signal. Here is the month-end series, using the last session of each month.
| Date | S&P 500 % above 200-day | TSX proxy % above 200-day | ^GSPC vs its own 200-day |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2025 | 59.8% | 82.8% | +7.47% |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 56.4% | 75.0% | +11.92% |
| Jan 30, 2026 | 65.7% | 71.9% | +7.93% |
| Mar 31, 2026 | 47.7% | 75.0% | -1.66% |
| Jun 30, 2026 | 60.5% | 64.1% | +8.15% |
| Aug 31, 2026 | 66.6% | 67.2% | +7.91% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 40.4% | 53.1% | +6.02% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 51.7% | 68.8% | +5.34% |
The September slide was not a one-day glitch. The daily S&P 500 reading eased from 56.8% on September 11 to 50.4% on September 16, then ground down to 40.4% on September 30, 2026. That was the lowest daily reading in the whole window since July 2025. It peaked at 73.6% on August 13, 2026.
The rebound has been real but partial. By October 16 the S&P 500 reading was back to 51.7%, up 11.3 points from the low. The TSX basket recovered more, from 53.1% to 68.8%.
Narrow vs broad: when the index and its members disagree
A broad market is one where most members trend with the index. A narrow market is one where the index rises on the backs of a few heavyweights while the typical stock lags. The last column of the table above is the tell.
On September 30, 2026, the S&P 500 closed 6.02% above its 200-day average, an uptrend by the standard 200-day test. Yet only 40.4% of its current members were above theirs. Four sessions later, on October 6, the index set a record close of 7,818.93 (price index, per the FMP series), while just 46.6% of members were above their 200-day lines. A record high with fewer than half the stocks in long-term uptrends is the textbook definition of a narrow market. Traders On Trend flagged the thinning in early September in S&P 500 at 7,718 but the Rally Is Thinning.
Compare March 31, 2026. The index was 1.66% below its 200-day, and breadth read 47.7%. Weak, but the two agreed. Agreement is information. Disagreement is a warning that the index price is hiding something.
The sector split behind the 51.7%
| S&P 500 sector (Oct 16, 2026) | Above 200-day | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Healthcare | 50 of 60 | 83.3% |
| Consumer Defensive | 22 of 32 | 68.8% |
| Energy | 14 of 22 | 63.6% |
| Technology | 48 of 85 | 56.5% |
| Consumer Cyclical | 18 of 53 | 34.0% |
| Real Estate | 5 of 30 | 16.7% |
| Utilities | 5 of 32 | 15.6% |
The headline number is an average of very different markets. Healthcare is broadly in uptrends. Utilities and real estate are almost entirely below their 200-day lines. A 51.7% reading built from 83% in one sector and 16% in another says rotation, not a uniform tide.
How to calculate it yourself
- Pick a universe and freeze the member list for the date you are measuring.
- For each stock, average its last 200 daily closes. That is the 200-day simple moving average.
- Mark the stock "above" if that day's close is higher than its average.
- Drop any stock without 200 closes of history. It cannot be scored.
- Divide the "above" count by the number of stocks scored, then multiply by 100.
Worked example, October 16, 2026: 258 S&P 500 members closed above their 200-day averages, and 499 had enough history to be scored. 258 / 499 = 0.517, or 51.7%. Four names on the 503-name constituent list dropped out of the denominator that day.
The survivorship caveat: our series applies today's member list to past dates, so earlier readings include stocks that were not yet in the index. By FMP's constituent file, 30 of the current 503 names were added on or after July 1, 2025, the latest being Twilio ($TWLO) on October 6, 2026. Back-filled readings therefore describe today's lineup, not the index traders actually held at the time. Treat the older numbers as approximate.
Thresholds traders cite
ChartSchool treats 50% as the dividing line, with a bullish bias above it and a bearish bias below. It calls readings above 70% overbought and below 30% oversold, and notes that these levels may vary for other indices. In a 2013 StockCharts commentary on the 200-day version, $SPXA200R, Arthur Hill described it as measuring "the degree of participation" and treated a break back below 80% as the first sign of material weakening, after the gauge topped 90%.
Against that framework, the S&P 500's 40.4% low on September 30 was below the 50% line but nowhere near the 30% oversold zone. The October 16 reading of 51.7% sits right on the line. The TSX basket at 68.8% is just shy of 70%.
Common mistakes
- Treating 50% as a trigger. The S&P reading sat between 49.8% and 50.6% for four straight sessions, September 16 to 21, 2026. A fixed 50% trigger would have flipped on rounding noise.
- Ignoring the index. The gauge is most useful as a comparison. A 50% reading with the index at a record means something different from 50% with the index below its 200-day.
- Mixing 50-day and 200-day signals. The 50-day version moves faster. Do not read a 50-day plunge as a long-term breakdown.
- Forgetting survivorship. Home-built histories that use current members distort the past.
- Calling it a timing tool. It describes participation. It does not predict the next move. Pair it with trend tools such as the golden cross vs death cross signal, and read the latest market coverage on the Traders On Trend homepage.
Bull/Bear Verdict
Bull Case: Where it helps: it exposed the gap between a record S&P 500 close on October 6, 2026 and a member base where only 46.6% were in long-term uptrends, and the climb from 40.4% to 51.7% since September 30 shows participation coming back, led by Canada at 68.8%.
Bear Case: Where it misleads: it gives the biggest and smallest members equal weight, it hovered on the 50% line for four sessions in September, and home-built histories lean on current members, so a single reading is a weak basis for any trade.
FAQ
What is a good percent of stocks above the 200-day average?
There is no universal "good" level. ChartSchool uses 50% as the bull/bear dividing line and 70%/30% as overbought/oversold zones. On October 16, 2026, the S&P 500 read 51.7% and the TSX 60 proxy 68.8%.
Why is the S&P 500 near highs while only half its stocks are above the 200-day?
The index is weighted by market value, so a small group of large stocks can lift it. On October 16, 2026, the index closed 2.04% below its October 6 record yet 5.34% above its own 200-day while only 51.7% of members were above theirs.
Is the 50-day or 200-day version better?
Neither is better. They answer different questions. The 200-day tracks long-term participation. The 50-day reacts faster. On October 16, 2026, the S&P 500 read 45.1% above the 50-day and 51.7% above the 200-day.
Where can I find this indicator for Canadian stocks?
StockCharts lists TSX versions such as $TSXA50R. You can also compute it yourself from the holdings of a TSX 60 fund. On October 16, 2026, 44 of 64 $XIU.TO holdings were above their 200-day averages.