On China access, Visa ($V) is the laggard of the three US networks: American Express ($AXP) has held a Chinese clearing license since June 2020 and Mastercard ($MA) since November 2023, while Visa only won approval to prepare on October 13, 2026. On the tape, the China news is hard to separate from the sector. Reuters reported the approval on October 13; Visa gained 1.74% in that day's session, and Mastercard gained 1.63%. Over the week to the October 16, 2026 close, Mastercard outran Visa.
The background on the approval itself is in our report on Visa winning approval to prepare for domestic business in China, and the full licensing mechanics are in Visa China approval explained. This piece is the scorecard.
The China access scorecard
| Network | China entity and structure | Approval to prepare | License | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Express ($AXP) | Express (Hangzhou) Technology Services; formed 2017 as a 50/50 JV with LianLian | Nov 9, 2018 | Jun 13, 2020 | Licensed |
| Mastercard ($MA) | Mastercard NUCC; 51% Mastercard, 49% NetsUnion | Announced Feb 11, 2020 | Announced Nov 19, 2023 | Opened May 2024 |
| Visa ($V) | Visa Information Technology (Beijing); foreign-invested enterprise | Oct 13, 2026 | None | Preparing; one-year window |
Two wrinkles. First, Chinese financial media report Amex's venture was restructured in early 2025 into a foreign-invested, non-wholly-owned company with Amex entities holding 82.3684%; the companies have not confirmed that figure in anything we reviewed. Second, Reuters reported, citing sources, that Visa had hoped for 100% ownership, which would be unprecedented. Ownership is unresolved in the public record.
A license is also not market share. Since opening, Mastercard NUCC has worked with more than 20 partner banks and issued or upgraded more than 300 card products, according to Sina. That is a start in a market of 10.217 billion bank cards dominated by state-controlled China UnionPay.
The tape: did China move Visa?
Reuters reported the approval on October 13, 2026. Here is how the three stocks traded around it, all FMP end-of-day closes.
| Stock | Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 9, 2026 | Oct 12, 2026 | Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 13 day | Week | Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $V | $370.93 | $385.45 | $389.27 | $396.06 | $402.61 | +1.74% | +4.45% | +8.54% |
| $MA | $567.75 | $589.14 | $595.09 | $604.80 | $617.42 | +1.63% | +4.80% | +8.75% |
| $AXP | $312.43 | $308.17 | $311.53 | $309.84 | $313.59 | -0.54% | +1.76% | +0.37% |
Week is the October 9 close to the October 16, 2026 close; month is September 16 to October 16. The arithmetic does not support a China story. Visa's single biggest day in that stretch was October 9, a 2.76% gain, four days before the approval was public. On the approval day, Visa beat Mastercard by 0.11 percentage points. Over the month the two moved almost in lockstep, and Mastercard, already licensed since 2023, finished ahead on both the week and the month.
The more defensible read: $V and $MA rallied together as a pair, and the market treated the China headline as a footnote. Visa's $402.61 close on October 16, 2026 was the highest in the FMP history we pulled, which starts in early August.
What Visa costs at $402.61
FMP's quarterly data gives Visa's GAAP diluted EPS for the last four reported quarters: $2.62 (September 2025 quarter), $3.03 (December 2025), $3.14 (March 2026) and $2.97 (June 2026). That sums to $11.76.
| Visa metric | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Trailing GAAP diluted EPS | $11.76 | Four quarters to Jun 30, 2026 |
| Trailing P/E | 34.2x | $402.61 Oct 16, 2026 close / $11.76 |
| Trailing net revenue | $44.49B | Four quarters to Jun 30, 2026 |
| FY2025 net revenue | $40.0B, up 11% | Fiscal year to Sep 30, 2025 |
Two caveats. The September 2025 quarter's $2.62 included an $899 million litigation provision, per Visa's earnings release, so the GAAP multiple runs a little rich versus underlying earnings.
Growth is not the problem: June 2026 quarter revenue of $11.63 billion was 14.4% above the $10.17 billion of the year-earlier quarter. We have not pulled audited trailing EPS for Mastercard or American Express in this dataset, so there is no like-for-like multiple here, and we won't invent one.
Where China fits in the numbers
Nowhere, yet. Visa's FY2025 earnings release, filed October 28, 2025, does not mention China. Visa has not disclosed a launch date or a revenue estimate, and on the precedents a license is 19 to 45 months away. Any China figure in a model today is a guess. Until a license notice appears, the scorecard above is the whole China story: two licensed rivals, one applicant and a fixed one-year preparation clock. The next data point is Visa's fiscal fourth-quarter report; last year's landed October 28.
For more on the payments names and the wider tape, see the Markets section.
Bull/Bear Verdict
Bull Case: Visa is now on the same licensing path that Amex and Mastercard completed, its revenue grew 14.4% year over year in the June 2026 quarter, and a China license would be an option the market has not visibly priced: the stock's October moves tracked Mastercard's almost exactly.
Bear Case: At 34.2x trailing GAAP earnings on the October 16, 2026 close, Visa is not cheap, it is third in line in China behind two licensed rivals and UnionPay, and the precedents put a license 19 to 45 months out with ownership terms still unsettled.
FAQ
Which card networks can clear renminbi transactions in China?
China UnionPay, American Express's joint venture (licensed June 13, 2020) and Mastercard NUCC (licensed in November 2023). Visa won approval to prepare on October 13, 2026 and has no license yet.
Did Visa stock jump on the China news?
Visa rose 1.74% on October 13, 2026, while Mastercard rose 1.63% the same day. Visa's biggest daily gain in the period came October 9, before the approval was public.
What is Visa's P/E?
About 34.2x trailing GAAP diluted EPS of $11.76, based on the $402.61 close on October 16, 2026 and the four quarters to June 30, 2026.
Is Mastercard or Amex ahead in China?
Both are ahead on licensing. Amex was licensed first in 2020; Mastercard was licensed in November 2023 and opened in May 2024. Neither company's China revenue is quantified in the sources reviewed here.