At the October 16, 2026 close of $61.70, Ambarella ($AMBA) carried an equity value of about $2.72 billion and an enterprise value of roughly $2.45 billion, so a takeover at a 20% to 40% premium would put the equity at about $3.27 billion to $3.81 billion. That is arithmetic, not a bid. No offer has been announced, neither Qualcomm ($QCOM) nor Ambarella has confirmed any talks, and the report that started this round came from an M&A rumor blog, not a company filing. Here is the math, input by input.
Who actually reported Qualcomm's interest
The trail leads to Betaville. On Friday, October 9, 2026, traders circulated a Betaville "uncooked" alert saying Qualcomm may be working with advisers on a possible deal for Ambarella, as Seeking Alpha summarized it. A GuruFocus item timestamped 16:56 UTC that day had the stock up 5.3% intraday. Our search turned up no Bloomberg, Reuters or The Information story reporting Qualcomm's interest, so the source remains a single rumor blog, relayed by aggregators.
That matters for anyone pricing a premium. The same chain of coverage includes a Financial Times report on July 31, 2026 that NXP Semiconductors was in talks to buy Ambarella, and a second Betaville alert on October 16, 2026 about an unnamed third bidder (covered in our third-bidder story). As of October 19, the most recent 8-K on Ambarella's EDGAR page is its September 3, 2026 earnings release. No deal filing exists. Our first report on the Qualcomm chatter covered the day-one rally; this piece prices it.
The price path: the pop came and went
| Session | $AMBA close | Daily change | Volume | What happened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | $67.62 | +0.8% | 3.41M | Betaville: a rival suitor may be circling |
| Oct 8, 2026 | $62.89 | -3.7% | 1.41M | Last close before the Qualcomm alert |
| Oct 9, 2026 | $67.43 | +7.2% | 2.02M | Qualcomm alert circulates |
| Oct 14, 2026 | $61.46 | -4.4% | 1.15M | Lowest close since August 3 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | $61.70 | -2.6% | 2.03M | Third-bidder alert circulates |
The October 9 jump of 7.2% has been fully handed back. The October 16, 2026 close of $61.70 sits 8.5% below the October 9 close and 1.9% below the October 8 close, the last price before the Qualcomm alert. Qualcomm barely noticed: $QCOM closed at $176.00 on October 8, $175.50 on October 9 and $172.10 at the October 16, 2026 close.
The longer view is harsher. In FMP daily data beginning August 3, 2026, Ambarella's highest close was $86.78 on August 7 and its lowest was $61.46 on October 14. From the August 3 close of $82.68 to October 16, the stock is down 25.4%. Whatever the market thinks about a takeover, it is paying less for one now than it did in early August.
What Ambarella is worth at the October 16 close
Every input below comes from Ambarella's 10-Q for the quarter ended July 31, 2026, or from FMP quarterly data where noted. Market cap is computed here, not copied from a quote screen.
| Line item | Value | Source / date |
|---|---|---|
| Ordinary shares outstanding | 44,140,971 | 10-Q cover, as of Aug 31, 2026 |
| Share price | $61.70 | October 16, 2026 close |
| Equity value | $2.72 billion | Price x shares |
| Cash and cash equivalents | $101.9 million | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Marketable debt securities | $170.5 million | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Borrowings | None on the balance sheet | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Operating lease liabilities | $12.6 million | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Enterprise value | $2.45 billion | Equity value minus $272.3M cash and securities |
| Trailing four-quarter revenue | $417.8 million | Quarters ended Oct 31, 2025 to Jul 31, 2026 |
| EV / trailing revenue | 5.9x | Arithmetic |
Ambarella has no bank debt or bonds, so enterprise value is simply equity minus its $272.3 million of cash and marketable securities. Counting the $12.6 million of lease liabilities as debt, as FMP does, nudges EV up by about half a percent. The business is growing: revenue for the quarter ended July 31, 2026 was $108.1 million, up 13.2% from $95.5 million a year earlier. It is not yet profitable, with an operating loss of $8.1 million and a net loss of $6.7 million that quarter.
What a 20%, 30% or 40% premium would imply
The table below is hypothetical arithmetic on the October 16, 2026 close. It is not a reported offer price, and no bidder has named one.
| Premium to $61.70 | Per share | Equity value | Implied EV | EV / trailing revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0% (Oct 16 close) | $61.70 | $2.72B | $2.45B | 5.9x |
| 20% | $74.04 | $3.27B | $3.00B | 7.2x |
| 30% | $80.21 | $3.54B | $3.27B | 7.8x |
| 40% | $86.38 | $3.81B | $3.54B | 8.5x |
Two caveats. First, real offers are struck on a fully diluted basis that adds unvested stock awards and options, so the true equity cost of any bid would be higher than this table shows. Second, the base matters. A 40% premium to $61.70 lands at $86.38, almost exactly the $86.78 close of August 7. A premium measured from the October 16 close may look generous to a buyer and stingy to a holder who bought in August.
How big would that be for Qualcomm?
Small. Qualcomm's 10-Q for the quarter ended June 28, 2026 shows $4.53 billion in cash and equivalents plus $3.77 billion in marketable securities, $8.30 billion in total, against $15.27 billion of debt ($2.49 billion short-term, $12.78 billion long-term). That leaves net debt of about $6.97 billion.
| Measure | Qualcomm | AMBA at 40% premium as a share |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap (1,050M shares x $172.10, Oct 16 close) | $180.7B | 2.1% |
| Cash and marketable securities (Jun 28, 2026) | $8.30B | 45.9% |
| Total debt (Jun 28, 2026) | $15.27B | 25.0% |
The share count is the 10-Q cover figure as of July 27, 2026, which predates roughly 18 million shares Qualcomm issued to close its Modular acquisition on July 28. That deal, valued at about $3.1 billion in the 10-Q, and the $2.3 billion Alphawave purchase completed December 18, 2025 were both paid largely in Qualcomm stock. An Ambarella deal in the $3 billion to $4 billion range would sit in the same weight class. Affordability is not the question; whether a deal exists at all is.
For how to tell when a rumor like this turns into something real, see our Qualcomm-Ambarella rumor checklist. More chip coverage lives in our Technology section.
Bull/Bear Verdict
Bull Case: Ambarella trades at 5.9x trailing revenue with no debt and growing sales, and even a 40% premium would cost Qualcomm about 2% of its October 16, 2026 market cap, a size it has already absorbed twice in the past year.
Bear Case: The Qualcomm interest rests on one rumor blog, the October 9 pop has been fully erased, and the stock is down 25.4% since August 3, 2026. No 8-K, offer or confirmation exists, and premium math on a deal nobody has announced is just math.
FAQ
Has Qualcomm made an offer for Ambarella?
No offer has been announced. The October 9, 2026 report came from a Betaville alert that traders cited, and neither company had confirmed talks as of the October 16, 2026 close. Ambarella's latest 8-K is its September 3, 2026 earnings release.
What is Ambarella's market cap?
About $2.72 billion at the October 16, 2026 close: $61.70 times 44,140,971 ordinary shares outstanding as of August 31, 2026, per the 10-Q cover. Enterprise value is about $2.45 billion after subtracting $272.3 million of cash and marketable securities.
What would a 30% takeover premium mean for $AMBA?
Arithmetically, $80.21 per share and about $3.54 billion of equity value, or 7.8x trailing revenue on an enterprise basis. That is a hypothetical calculation, not a reported price.
Could Qualcomm afford Ambarella?
On size, yes. Even a 40% premium equals about 2.1% of Qualcomm's market cap at the October 16, 2026 close, and its recent Alphawave and Modular deals were of similar scale. Size says nothing about whether talks exist.