{"id":5054,"date":"2024-01-04T15:13:26","date_gmt":"2024-01-04T15:13:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tradersontrend.com\/?p=5054"},"modified":"2024-01-04T15:14:43","modified_gmt":"2024-01-04T15:14:43","slug":"2024-starts-with-a-stumble-sp-500-falters-as-santa-claus-rally-fizzles-out","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tradersontrend.com\/h\/2024\/01\/04\/2024-starts-with-a-stumble-sp-500-falters-as-santa-claus-rally-fizzles-out\/","title":{"rendered":"2024 Starts with a Stumble: S&P 500 Falters as Santa Claus Rally Fizzles Out"},"content":{"rendered":"
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NEW on Traders on Trend!<\/p>\n

Let’s dive into the whirlwind start of the new year that’s left investors scrambling. The S&P 500, after a spectacular rise in the last quarter of 2023, has stumbled into 2024 with three consecutive days of losses, totaling a 1.64% drop. This marks the most significant dip since last October, catching many off guard.<\/p>\n

But there’s more to the story than just these early hiccups. We’re also witnessing the aftermath of the much-anticipated Santa Claus Rally, which, frankly, didn’t quite deliver the cheer this time. For those new to the term, let’s take a brief detour into history.<\/p>\n

The concept dates back to 1972, thanks to Yale Hirsch’s insight. He noted that stocks generally see an uptick during the last five trading days of a year and the first two of the next. Thus, the Santa Claus Rally was coined \u2013 an indicator that has historically promised investors an average gain of 1.3% in this period, about 80% of the time.<\/p>\n

But the true essence of this indicator isn’t just in these short-term gains. It’s seen as a bellwether for the year ahead. Jeff Hirsch, following in his father’s footsteps, expanded on this idea in the Stock Trader’s Almanac by introducing two more January-centric indicators: the First Five Days and the January Barometer, the latter measuring the market’s performance for the entire month.<\/p>\n

The potency of these indicators was evident in 2019. When all three showed positive results at the start of that year, the following eleven months saw gains 87.1% of the time, with an impressive average increase of 12.3%. The entire year showed progress 90.3% of the time, with an average S&P 500 gain of 17.5%.<\/p>\n

Let’s rewind to last year for context. On January 4, 2023, the S&P 500 was up 0.9% during the Santa window. The First Five Days indicator showed a 1.4% increase. By the end of January, the benchmark index was up by 6.2%.<\/p>\n

While these indicators suggested a green light last year, investors were still reeling from the blows of one of the worst performing years for a traditional 60\/40 portfolio. The start of 2024, with its initial setbacks, suggests a cautious approach may be wise. Investors, it seems, are still finding their footing in a market that continues to defy expectations.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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NEW on Traders on Trend! Let’s dive into the whirlwind start of the new year that’s left investors scrambling. The S&P 500, after a spectacular rise in the last quarter of 2023, has stumbled into 2024 with three consecutive days of losses, totaling a 1.64% drop. This marks the most significant dip since last October,…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":5055,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[668],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5054","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-education"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/tradersontrend.com\/h\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5054","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/tradersontrend.com\/h\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/tradersontrend.com\/h\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tradersontrend.com\/h\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tradersontrend.com\/h\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5054"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/tradersontrend.com\/h\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5054\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5056,"href":"https:\/\/tradersontrend.com\/h\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5054\/revisions\/5056"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tradersontrend.com\/h\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5055"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/tradersontrend.com\/h\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5054"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tradersontrend.com\/h\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5054"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tradersontrend.com\/h\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5054"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}