APRIL 4, 2024

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Trendsters, looks like the bears picked another bad day to be grumpy! The market's showing surprising strength, shaking off negativity as easily as a dog shakes off water. Worries about the economy? Poof! Concerns about earnings season? Gone. Today, the party's on, and the bulls are inviting everyone.

 

Get ready to dive into the action. We'll take a closer look at Johnson & Johnson's stumble in our Chart of the Day segment. Plus, we've got all the latest Market Moving News that could send individual stocks soaring or sinking. And of course, a bit of quirkiness with Random Musings and a blast from the past with the Time Machine. Let's see what kind of trouble the market gets into today!

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TODAY'S MARKET MOOD

Moderately Bullish!

 

 

MARKET ROUNDUP

Mixed Bag for the Markets

 

Talk about a mixed bag! The market opened with a dip, bounced on strong job numbers, then had a little wobble thanks to a weaker services report. It's a reminder that economic data can be a fickle beast – one moment fueling a rally, the next stoking a selloff.

 

Here's where the market stands: 

  • The S&P 500 index climbed by 5.68 points (0.1%) to reach 5,211.49.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced a slight decline, losing 43.10 points (0.1%) to settle at 39,127.14.
  • The Nasdaq Composite® showed positive momentum, adding 37.01 points (0.2%) to close at 16,277.46.
  • Additionally:
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield decreased by more than 1 basis point, reaching 4.351%.
  • The Cboe Volatility Index® (VIX) declined to 14.33.
  • Energy shares stood out as strong performers, driven by gains in WTI Crude Oil (/CL) futures, which rose for the fifth consecutive day and surpassed $85 per barrel, the highest level since October.
  • The Philadelphia Oil Service Index (OSX) surged by 1.6%, extending its year-to-date gain to nearly 14%.

Yet, the bulls clearly held the upper hand. The S&P 500 snapped a losing streak, while those energy stocks just keep on truckin' higher. It seems investors are looking for any bright spot amidst the economic gloom and pouncing when they see it.

 

What's This Mean for Investors?

 

Expect more of this back-and-forth action. It's going to take a clear catalyst  – a blowout earnings season, or signs the Fed is softening its hawkish stance – to create a decisive trend. Until then, nimble traders may find opportunities in sector rotation. Buckle in and try to enjoy the bumps!

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MARKET MISCHIEF

Bears Got Knocked Out

 

Bears have been singing a sad song lately – higher inflation is the only tune they know! But just as they predicted a market meltdown, the punchbowl got refilled with surprisingly strong job numbers. Oops!

 

Turns out, this bull market is a bit like that stubborn party guest who just won't leave. Dip buyers keep crashing the bears' pity party by scooping up stocks on sale.

 

Speaking of surprise guests, did you hear that OPEC decided to stick with its current oil production plan?  Energy stocks are partying like it's 1999, and oil prices refuse to cool down. Maybe it's time for the bears to hibernate and try again next quarter.

CHART OF THE DAY

Tesla Charging Up?

 

JNJ is feeling the pain. The healthcare giant is bumping its head against a stubborn resistance zone where the 200-day and 50-day moving averages converge. This technical roadblock has halted its rally for now.

 

JNJ has been stuck in a sideways shuffle since the start of the year, trapped in a two-year downtrend. And if the bearish cross on the RSI confirms, things could get worse before they get better. Those prior bearish crosses weren't just a coincidence, they were followed by significant declines.

 

Now, don't write off JNJ completely. A bounce is possible, but for now, it could be headed for the 147.00 level, a Fibonacci retracement zone. This market is all about opportunity – JNJ's pain could be a cautious trader's gain as this one sets up for a potential short-term play.

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ANALYSIS

Bears Baffled as the Bulls Keep Partying

 

The bears must be scratching their heads, wondering what's going on! The market took a brief dip at the open, and everyone assumed the usual gloom-and-doom would follow. But alas, those stubborn dip buyers swooped in like they got an invite to the hottest party in town. It's getting comical.

 

The message is clear: most investors aren't panicking, and they're certainly not throwing in the towel at these prices.  If this market was truly fragile, we'd see those big, ugly selloffs. Instead, declines are quickly met with bargain hunters.

 

Of course, this game can't keep going forever. Eventually, the bulls will need a solid reason to keep charging  –  not just the absence of a reason to sell.  But for now, the bears looking for a big breakdown are getting outsmarted by a market that just wants to keep the good times rolling.

MARKET MOVERS

Winners, Losers, and the Coming Earnings Wave

 

Cal-Maine Foods (CALM): Egg prices might be high, but CALM investors are happy. Despite lower profits, demand remains strong, signaling a recovery from the bird flu woes.

 

Dave & Buster's (PLAY): This entertainment chain delighted investors with a supersized share buyback announcement. Time to party like the results were all aces!

 

Ford Motor (F): Gas-guzzlers aren't the only ones in demand. Ford's electric vehicle sales are surging, a bright spot in its solid sales report.

 

Ulta Beauty (ULTA): Looks like the makeup boom is slowing down. Ulta's lowered outlook sent a chill through investors, causing a serious selloff.

 

Walt Disney (DIS): Despite recent drama, shareholders gave Disney's board the thumbs up. The stock remains a tale of two stories – strong gains this year, but recent activist investor challenges.

 

Eyes on Earnings

 

Levi Strauss (LEVI) joins the earnings parade after the market close.  On Thursday, food giants Lamb Weston (LW) and ConAgra Brands (CAG) serve up their latest results. But the real feast starts next week as major banks kick off earnings season. Think Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and more...get ready for market fireworks!

 

The Fed Factor

 

Fed speakers are singing the same 'no rate cut just yet' tune. Economic strength is great news, but it makes the Fed's job harder. Investors are increasingly betting on fewer rate cuts this year, so upcoming data like Friday's jobs report is crucial.

MARKET MUSINGS & TIME CAPSULE

 

Random Musings: Financial Fortunes and Follies

 

The market is like a stubborn houseguest...just when you think it's leaving, it finds a reason to stay.

 

Today's dip buyers are tomorrow's profit-takers. Will their timing be as sharp as their buying instincts?

 

Bears spent all their energy roaring in the wrong places. Now they'll need time to regroup.

 

OPEC extending cuts is like adding fuel to the energy stock rally. Is there a ceiling on these prices?

 

Don't let market chop get you down. Remember, volatility cuts both ways!

 

On this day in history, April 4

 

1933: President Roosevelt signed the Emergency Banking Act, a response to the Great Depression. Lesson learned: A crisis can spark bold reforms.

 

1865: Robert E. Lee surrendered to Ulysses S. Grant, marking a turning point in the Civil War. Sometimes, even a tough fight has to end.

 

1968: Martin Luther King Jr. delivered his powerful "I've Been to the Mountaintop" speech. A reminder that conviction in the face of adversity can change the world.

 

1955: The polio vaccine developed by Jonas Salk was declared safe and effective. Innovation and breakthroughs – qualities we need in markets as well!

 

1981 The first space shuttle, Columbia, launched on its maiden flight. Bold ambition pays off...sometimes spectacularly.

THE FINAL LEDGER

Bears on a Timeout

 

"He who sells what isn't his'n, must buy it back or go to prison." –  Daniel Drew, 19th-century financier

 

Seems like the bears might have done a bit of premature selling!  For now, the bulls are holding the reins and have no intention of letting this rally fizzle out. Of course, the markets have a mind of their own, and things can change in an instant. But as of today, the takeaway is clear: Don't underestimate the power of resilient investors and a market determined to ignore bad news.

 

It may not be the most exciting strategy, but staying focused on the long game and the true worth of your holdings is the smartest way to outlast the market's temper tantrums. Think like an owner, not a gambler, and remember – those who panic first usually lose the most. 

 

Disclaimer:

 

Trading foreign exchange, stocks, options, or futures on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade, you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience.

 

This newsletter provides general information that does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. The content of this newsletter or our website must not be construed as personal advice. COE Media is not registered or licensed by any governing body in any jurisdiction to give investing advice or provide investment recommendation.

 

The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss in excess of your deposited funds and therefore, you should not speculate with capital that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. You should seek advice from an independent financial advisor.

Any past performance presented is not necessarily indicative of future success.

 

Always do your own research and consult with a licensed investment professional before making an investment. This communication should not be used as a basis for making any investment.

 

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