The premarket call was right, and the cash session beat it: on Monday, September 21, 2026, a rebound in AI and chip stocks plus a sharp drop in crude lifted the Nasdaq Composite 2.26% to a record 27,122.09 and the S&P 500 1.49% to 7,764.70. WTI crude fell 4.5%, and the 10-year Treasury yield slipped back under 5%. Those were the two things traders had been watching. By Friday, though, the bond market had given most of that relief back. This page is the full record of the session and the week, built from closing prices, with an update on where the same instruments stood at the October 16, 2026 close. More session recaps are on the Traders On Trend homepage.
What the futures said before the bell
The original version of this story linked only to a Google News redirect. The underlying report is a Reuters premarket story from September 21, 2026. At 8:34 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were up 438 points (0.84%), S&P 500 E-minis up 51.5 points (0.67%) and Nasdaq 100 E-minis up 313.5 points (1.05%). Intel was up 5.7% before the open. Reuters said crude had fallen more than 2% to an 11-day low on signs of progress in Middle East negotiations, and the 10-year yield had slipped below 5%.
The AI bounce followed a rout the week before. That selloff began when leaders at top AI companies warned about the risks of the technology. On Monday investors focused instead on signs that AI spending was still expanding. Jefferies economist Mohit Kumar told Reuters: "We are past the local peak in (Middle East) tensions." The earlier version of this article also cited expectations of higher Saudi exports. None of the Reuters reports reviewed for this update mention that, so it has been removed.
How the session actually closed
The close was stronger than the futures. S&P 500 E-minis were up 0.67% at 8:34 a.m., and the cash index finished up 1.49%. According to Reuters' closing report, it was the Nasdaq's first record close since June 2. The Dow added 0.71% to 52,048.83. Intel jumped 12.2%, Arm Holdings 17%, and the PHLX semiconductor index 4.3%. AMD rose about 10% and topped a $1 trillion market value for the first time. Meta gained 11.4% after Wells Fargo raised its price target following the launch of the Muse AI assistant. Communication services gained 4.16% and technology 2.4%, and eight of 11 S&P 500 sectors rose. Brent settled at $100.34, its first close below $100 since September 8 in the closing-price data. Art Hogan of B. Riley Wealth summed up the day: "We've been kind of programmed to follow the price of oil and the yield on the US 10-year."
| Instrument | Sept 18 close | Sept 21 close | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (^GSPC) | 7,650.50 | 7,764.70 | +1.49% |
| Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) | 26,522.55 | 27,122.09 | +2.26% |
| $DIA (Dow ETF) | $515.88 | $519.78 | +0.76% |
| $SPY | $761.69 | $773.50 | +1.55% |
| $QQQ | $721.45 | $741.47 | +2.77% |
| $NVDA | $222.27 | $227.38 | +2.30% |
| $MSFT | $493.78 | $501.61 | +1.59% |
| WTI crude (CLUSD) | $100.30 | $95.78 | -4.51% |
| Brent crude (BZUSD) | $103.87 | $100.34 | -3.40% |
| 10-year Treasury (par) | 5.01% | 4.96% | -5 bp |
| 30-year Treasury (par) | 5.34% | 5.29% | -5 bp |
The arithmetic matches the headline: $QQQ gained 2.77% and $SPY 1.55%, while the Dow-tracking $DIA rose only 0.76%, so tech and AI led. $NVDA added 2.30% and $MSFT 1.59%. WTI fell from $100.30 to $95.78, which is 4.52 dollars, or 4.51%. On the Treasury's end-of-day par curve, the 10-year closed at 4.96% (down 5 bp) and the 30-year at 5.29% (down 5 bp).
The backdrop: a Fed hike and a bond selloff
Monday came five days after the Fed tightened. On September 16, 2026, the FOMC voted 12–0 to raise the federal funds target range by 1/4 point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent. Reuters called it the first hike in three years. Even on the rally day, CME FedWatch showed about a 50% chance of another hike in October. In the Iran story, the two sides had traded threats over the weekend. Even so, the US president said he was open to meeting Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, who was expected at the UN General Assembly that week. More background is in our coverage of the Fed's first hike in three years.
How the week of September 21–25 played out
- Tuesday, Sept 22: The Nasdaq rose 0.45% to a second straight record, 27,244.28, while the S&P 500 closed flat at 7,764.64. Financials fell 1.68%. FedWatch odds of an October hike reached 53%, according to Reuters.
- Wednesday, Sept 23: The S&P 500 fell 0.75% and the Nasdaq 1.13%, according to Reuters. Iran's president said Tehran would not give in to US pressure, a survey showed US business activity at a more-than-five-year high, and oil rose almost 4%. The 10-year touched its highest since 2007, and the 10-year par yield closed at 5.11%, up 15 bp in one day. FedWatch odds of an October hike reached 71%.
- Thursday, Sept 24: The S&P 500 closed nearly flat at 7,704.13. The 30-year touched about 5.44%, its highest since 2004, and InvestmentNews reported the CME odds of an October hike at 77.5%. Our report from that day is yields near 2007 highs ahead of the Trump-Xi talks.
- Friday, Sept 25: Reuters said Wall Street ended higher, led by Microsoft and other AI stocks, despite high oil prices. $MSFT rose from $497.93 to $516.17, a 3.66% gain.
For the week, the S&P 500 gained 1.21% (7,650.50 to 7,743.41) and the Nasdaq 2.06% (26,522.55 to 27,068.72). The bond market went the other way: the 10-year par yield rose from 5.01% to 5.17% (+16 bp) and the 30-year from 5.34% to 5.49% (+15 bp). Oil was mixed. WTI fell 7.87% to $92.41, while Brent ended the week 0.43% higher at $104.32. Monday's lower yields were gone by Friday.
Where it stands at the October 16, 2026 close
| Instrument | Sept 21, 2026 | Oct 16, 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (^GSPC) | 7,764.70 | 7,659.44 | -1.36% |
| Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) | 27,122.09 | 26,140.03 | -3.62% |
| $NVDA | $227.38 | $214.13 | -5.83% |
| $MSFT | $501.61 | $529.05 | +5.47% |
| WTI crude (CLUSD) | $95.78 | $101.41 | +5.88% |
| Brent crude (BZUSD) | $100.34 | $109.86 | +9.49% |
| 10-year Treasury (par) | 4.96% | 5.09% | +13 bp |
| 30-year Treasury (par) | 5.29% | 5.43% | +14 bp |
Both of Monday's tailwinds have since reversed. Brent is up 9.49% from the September 21 settlement and WTI 5.88%. The 30-year par yield peaked at a 2026-high close of 5.67% on October 7 (see our 30-year yield report) before easing to 5.43%. The Nasdaq is 3.62% below its September 21 close. $NVDA is down 5.83%, while $MSFT is up 5.47%, a sign that the AI trade has split rather than simply reversed.
What to watch
- Brent near $110 (it was $109.86 on Oct 16) against the September 21 relief level of $100.34.
- The 10-year par yield relative to 5%. It closed at 5.09% on Oct 16, the yield Hogan said traders are programmed to follow.
- Fed pricing. In mid-October, Trading Economics reported markets expecting a hold in October and a likely hike in December.
Bull/Bear Verdict
Bull Case: The September 21 session showed how quickly AI leadership returns when oil and yields ease together. The Nasdaq set two straight record closes, and $MSFT is still above its Sept 21 close.
Bear Case: That relief lasted one day in the bond market. The 10-year yield rose 16 bp that week, Brent is about $9.50 higher, and the Nasdaq is 3.62% below its Sept 21 close.
FAQ
Did stocks really rise on September 21, 2026?
Yes. The S&P 500 closed up 1.49% at 7,764.70, and the Nasdaq rose 2.26% to a record 27,122.09.
How far did oil fall that day?
WTI fell 4.51% to $95.78. Brent fell 3.40% to $100.34, its first close below $100 since September 8.
What drove the AI rebound?
Reuters said investors refocused on signs that AI spending was still expanding after a selloff the week before. Chip stocks led: Intel rose 12.2%, Arm 17% and AMD about 10%.
Where are the indexes now?
At the October 16, 2026 close, the S&P 500 was at 7,659.44 (down 1.36% from Sept 21) and the Nasdaq at 26,140.03 (down 3.62%).
Updated October 19, 2026: expanded with the original Reuters reports, closing data for Sept 18–25, Treasury par yields, the Sept 16 Fed decision and prices through the October 16, 2026 close. An unsourced claim about Saudi exports was removed.