AES received CFIUS approval on August 27, 2026 for its $15.00-per-share cash sale to a consortium led by Global Infrastructure Partners and EQT, and the deal has since cleared Ohio regulators and the European Commission, but it had not closed as of October 19, 2026. With $AES at $14.95 at the October 16, 2026 close, the market is pricing the takeover as close to done: the gap to the $15.00 deal price is 5 cents. What is left is a short list of approvals, a calendar question, and a $0.17595 dividend that is worth more than the spread itself.
The terms
AES signed the merger agreement on March 1, 2026 and announced it on March 2, 2026. The buyer is Horizon Parent, L.P., controlled by vehicles tied to Global Infrastructure Partners (part of BlackRock) and the EQT Infrastructure VI fund, with CalPERS and the Qatar Investment Authority as co-underwriters. The announcement release sets out the core numbers:
- Price: $15.00 in cash per share, a total equity value of $10.7 billion and an enterprise value of about $33.4 billion including assumed debt.
- Premium: 40.3% over the 30-day volume-weighted average price before July 8, 2025, the last full trading day before the first media report of a possible sale.
- Financing: the consortium said it will fund 100% of the purchase price with equity.
- Dividends: expected to continue in the ordinary course until closing, subject to board approval.
- Timing: close expected in late 2026 or early 2027.
The proxy statement adds an End Date of June 1, 2027, which extends automatically for up to two three-month periods if only regulatory approvals are outstanding. The Q2 2026 10-Q lists the break fees: the buyer would owe AES $100 million or about $588 million depending on the circumstances, while AES would owe about $321 million in other cases. AES Indiana and AES Ohio are slated to stay locally operated regulated utilities.
What has happened since
The original August 28, 2026 report rested on a single Seeking Alpha news item. The August 27, 2026 8-K confirms it: AES "received CFIUS Approval" that day, and the merger "remains subject to certain additional regulatory approvals and other customary closing conditions." Here is the full record.
| Date | Step | $AES close |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 1–2, 2026 | Merger agreement signed and announced at $15.00 cash | n/a |
| Jun 22, 2026 | HSR antitrust waiting period expires | $14.65 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Stockholders approve: 479,072,642 for, 10,131,991 against | $14.67 |
| Aug 27, 2026 | CFIUS approval received | $14.75 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Public Utilities Commission of Ohio approves the merger | $14.85 |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Board declares $0.17595 dividend, record Oct 30, payable Nov 13 | $14.94 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | European Commission clears the deal under simplified review | $14.95 |
The vote was lopsided: 479,072,642 for versus 10,131,991 against works out to 97.9% of shares voted for or against. The European Commission cleared the acquisition of joint control on October 16, 2026, finding no competition concerns. The merger agreement also names approvals from FERC and the New York State Public Service Commission. AES had not filed an 8-K reporting either one as of October 19, 2026; the most recent deal 8-K, dated September 17, 2026, said further regulatory approvals were still required.
The math
All prices are FMP daily closes. The spread is $15.00 minus the close; the dividend line adds the declared $0.17595 payment to holders of record on October 30, 2026.
| Measure | Value | Arithmetic |
|---|---|---|
| Gross spread, Oct 16, 2026 | $0.05 (0.33%) | 15.00 − 14.95; 0.05 ÷ 14.95 |
| Spread plus Nov 13 dividend | $0.22595 (1.51%) | 0.05 + 0.17595; ÷ 14.95 |
| Annualized if closed Dec 31, 2026 (76 days) | 1.61% ex-dividend; 7.26% with it | 0.33% × 365/76; 1.51% × 365/76 |
| Annualized if closed at End Date, Jun 1, 2027 (228 days) | 0.54% ex-dividend; 2.42% with one dividend | 0.33% × 365/228; 1.51% × 365/228 |
| 3-month Treasury, Oct 16, 2026 | 4.26% | Treasury par yield curve |
| Spread on May 1, 2026 | $0.72 (5.04%) | 15.00 − 14.28 |
| Spread on Aug 27, 2026 (CFIUS day) | $0.25 (1.69%) | 15.00 − 14.75 |
December 31, 2026 is the last day of the "late 2026" window AES gave; June 1, 2027 is the contractual End Date before extensions. On the 5-cent price gap alone, the trade yields less than a 3-month Treasury bill at 4.26%. The dividend is what makes the numbers work: if the deal closes by year-end, the annualized return with the November payment is about 7.26%. Stretch the close to June 2027 and that drops to 2.42% unless another dividend is declared before closing. From the CFIUS day to October 16, 2026, $AES rose $0.20, or 1.36%, as the spread compressed.
The business under the bid
The math on the downside matters because the spread is so thin. The 40.3% premium implies a 30-day VWAP of about $10.69 before the July 2025 leak (15.00 ÷ 1.403), which is 28.5% below the October 16 close. That is not a forecast of where the stock would trade if the deal broke. Operations have changed since then: FMP's Q2 2026 income statement shows revenue of $3.42 billion and net income of $465 million ($0.60 per diluted share), against revenue of $2.86 billion and a $105 million net loss in Q2 2025. The announcement release also said AES "has a significant need for capital to support growth beyond 2027" and that, standalone, it would likely need a "reduction or elimination of the dividend and/or substantial new equity issuances." For more on how rates feed into power stocks, see our look at utilities and the bond selloff.
What to watch
- FERC: the proxy said a Section 203 application was expected in May 2026, and FERC must rule within 180 days of a completed filing unless it extends for good cause.
- New York PSC: the proxy described a declaratory-ruling petition covering certain New York generation assets, with full review as the alternative.
- Remaining foreign approvals: the agreement requires "certain approvals under the applicable laws of certain foreign countries"; the EU clearance is one of them.
- Next 8-K: AES reported the vote, CFIUS and PUCO steps in 8-Ks; a closing would come with one too. The October 30, 2026 dividend record date comes first.
The ATH-CVE spread breakdown uses the same framework, and the NextEra-Dominion piece covers another utility deal facing a stack of state and federal approvals. More deal coverage is on the Traders On Trend homepage.
Bull/Bear Verdict
Bull Case: Stockholders, HSR, CFIUS, Ohio and Brussels are all done, the buyers are funding with equity rather than debt, and a $0.17595 dividend is due on November 13, 2026. A year-end close would turn a 1.51% total gap into roughly 7.26% annualized.
Bear Case: The upside is capped at $15.00 plus dividends, and the price gap alone yields less than T-bills. FERC and New York are still open, the End Date runs to June 2027 with extensions, and the pre-leak reference price sits about 28.5% below the October 16 close.
FAQ
Did AES receive CFIUS approval?
Yes. AES's 8-K says it received CFIUS Approval, as defined in the merger agreement, on August 27, 2026. CFIUS approval is a closing condition.
Has the AES buyout closed?
No closing had been announced as of October 19, 2026. AES's latest deal 8-K, dated September 17, 2026, said the merger still required certain additional regulatory approvals, and $AES was still trading on October 16, 2026.
How much will AES shareholders get?
$15.00 in cash per share at closing, without interest. Dividends are expected to continue until then; the next one is $0.17595 per share, payable November 13, 2026 to holders of record on October 30, 2026.
Who is buying AES?
Horizon Parent, L.P., controlled by vehicles affiliated with Global Infrastructure Partners (part of BlackRock) and the EQT Infrastructure VI fund, with CalPERS and the Qatar Investment Authority as co-underwriters.
Updated October 19, 2026: expanded with terms from the merger release, proxy and 10-Q; the stockholder vote, CFIUS, PUCO and EU clearances from AES 8-Ks and Commission reporting; the October 2026 dividend; and spread math using prices through the October 16, 2026 close. The CFIUS approval in the original headline is confirmed; speculative claims about a regulatory shift were removed.