Voss Capital, a Houston hedge fund with about 2 million Sempra ($SRE) shares, urged the company in late May 2026 to spin off its 80% stake in Texas utility Oncor, and as of October 19, 2026 Sempra has not publicly answered or announced any Oncor separation. Sempra has kept to its own simplification plan instead: selling down Sempra Infrastructure, its LNG arm, and building out Texas and California utility spending. Over the same stretch $SRE fell 7.4%, from $90.03 on May 28 to $83.41 at the October 16, 2026 close.
The terms: what Voss actually asked for
Reuters broke the story on Thursday, May 28, 2026, citing a letter it had seen. Hedgeweek and other outlets summarized it the next day. The key points from that reporting:
- Stake: about 2 million Sempra shares, under 1% of the company. That is roughly 0.31% of the 653.9 million shares outstanding on August 3, 2026.
- The ask: spin off Oncor into a Texas-focused utility, separate from Sempra's California utilities and Sempra Infrastructure, its LNG export developer.
- The valuation claim: a standalone Oncor could be worth up to $78 billion by the end of 2028. On that view, Sempra's roughly 80% stake would be worth more than Sempra's entire market value.
- The rationale: three distinct businesses make Sempra unnecessarily complicated, Oncor's spending is mostly on regulator-approved projects, and Oncor has no exposure to California wildfire risk.
A June 3, 2026 summary on MarketScreener (S&P Capital IQ) adds the structure: a tax-free spin-off of Sempra's 80.3% economic interest in Oncor to shareholders, with Sempra keeping its California utilities as a stable, high-dividend vehicle. Sempra's own 10-Q puts the figure at 80.25%, held through Oncor Holdings. Sempra bought that stake in 2018 for $9.45 billion.
Sempra's response at the time: none. Per Reuters, Sempra did not reply to a request for comment, Oncor had no immediate comment, and Voss declined to comment beyond the letter.
What has happened since
No spin-off, no Oncor sale, and no public rebuttal that this review could find. A review of Sempra's SEC filings through mid-October 2026 shows no 8-K on any Oncor separation. What the company has filed tells its own story:
- June 15, 2026: SDG&E and SoCalGas filed 2028 general rate cases, asking the CPUC for test-year revenue requirements of $3.76 billion and $5.10 billion.
- July 6, 2026: the board named Justin Bird, CEO of Sempra Infrastructure, as CFO. The appointment takes effect around the close of the planned sale of part of Sempra Infrastructure Partners.
- August 6, 2026: the Q2 2026 release showed GAAP EPS of $1.21 (vs. $0.71 a year earlier) and adjusted EPS of $1.16 (vs. $0.89). Sempra affirmed 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $4.80 to $5.30, 2027 EPS guidance of $5.10 to $5.70, and 7% to 9% long-term EPS growth.
- KKR deal: the sale of a 45% stake in Sempra Infrastructure Partners to KKR affiliates for $9.99 billion was expected to close in the third quarter of 2026, per the Q2 10-Q filed August 6, 2026. That is the latest company statement found on timing.
The Q2 release says those initiatives are "designed to simplify the company's strategy, strengthen its financial position and support long-term utility growth." That is Voss's goal reached by a different route. Sempra is selling down its infrastructure arm, not separating Oncor. Texas is central to the pitch. The release cites ERCOT's new all-time peak load of 91 GW in July, about 44 GW of large-load requests in Oncor's territory expected to be eligible under ERCOT's Batch Zero process (against Oncor's current 31 GW system peak), and a roughly $65 billion 2026-2030 capital plan with 95% going to the Texas and California utilities. CEO Jeffrey W. Martin said: "Across our management team, there is a consistent emphasis on execution, and our progress through the first half of the year is reflected in strong financial performance."
The math: the $78 billion claim vs. $SRE today
| Item | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Voss's 2028 Oncor equity value | $78.0B | Voss letter, per Reuters |
| Sempra's look-through share at 80.25% | $62.6B | $78B x 0.8025 |
| Sempra market cap, May 28, 2026 | $58.9B | 653.9M shares (Aug 3 count) x $90.03 |
| Sempra market cap, Oct 16, 2026 | $54.5B | 653.9M shares x $83.41 |
| Book value of Oncor Holdings stake, June 30, 2026 | $19.0B | Q2 10-Q |
The gap between $62.6 billion and $54.5 billion is the heart of the activist pitch. Three caveats apply. The $78 billion is a projection for the end of 2028, not today's value. The comparison does not net out parent-level debt. And Sempra's market value also covers the California utilities and the remaining LNG stake.
| Date (2026) | $SRE close | 10-yr Treasury |
|---|---|---|
| May 28 (Reuters report) | $90.03 | 4.45% |
| Jul 8 (window high) | $95.33 | n/a |
| Sep 28 (window low) | $76.89 | n/a |
| Oct 16 | $83.41 | 5.09% |
From May 28 to October 16, $SRE fell 7.4% (arithmetic: $83.41 / $90.03 - 1), while the S&P 500 rose 1.3%. From the July 8 high to the September 28 low it lost 19.3%, then bounced 8.5%. The 10-year Treasury par yield rose 64 basis points over the same period. Utilities compete with bonds for income money; see our note on utilities and yields. At $83.41, $SRE trades at about 16.5 times the $5.05 midpoint of 2026 adjusted EPS guidance and about 15.4 times the $5.40 midpoint for 2027.
What to watch
- KKR closing: whether the Sempra Infrastructure Partners sale closes as guided. Bird's move to CFO is tied to it.
- Voss escalation: a stake of under 1% gives limited leverage. Watch for a public letter, nominations or a larger position.
- Q3 results: any comment on Oncor's structure, the 2026 guidance range, and Oncor's large-load pipeline.
- Utility M&A comps: sector deals reset what "pure-play" utilities are worth. See NextEra-Dominion and our look at activist pressure at Lionsgate.
More utility and activist coverage is on the Traders On Trend homepage.
Bull/Bear Verdict
Bull Case: On Voss's numbers, the Oncor stake alone ($62.6 billion by 2028) exceeds Sempra's $54.5 billion market cap at the Oct 16 close. Texas load growth of about 44 GW of eligible requests against a 31 GW peak supports Oncor's spending, and the KKR sale simplifies the story further.
Bear Case: Voss holds under 1%, Sempra has not engaged publicly, and the $78 billion is a 2028 projection that ignores parent debt. $SRE is down 7.4% since the letter while the 10-year yield rose to 5.09%.
FAQ
What did Voss Capital ask Sempra to do?
Spin off Oncor, its roughly 80%-owned Texas utility, into a separate public company. Voss argued it could be worth up to $78 billion by the end of 2028.
How big is Voss Capital's stake in Sempra?
About 2 million shares, under 1% of the company, per Reuters. That is roughly $167 million at the October 16, 2026 close of $83.41.
Has Sempra responded to the Oncor spin-off proposal?
Not publicly. Sempra did not respond to Reuters, and its filings through mid-October 2026 announce no Oncor separation. Its stated strategy is the KKR stake sale and utility capital spending.
How has Sempra stock done since the Voss report?
It closed at $83.41 on October 16, 2026, down 7.4% from $90.03 on May 28, 2026. The S&P 500 gained 1.3% over the same period.
Updated October 19, 2026: expanded with the Voss proposal as reported by Reuters and S&P Capital IQ, Sempra's Q2 2026 results and SEC filings, a sum-of-parts check, and price and Treasury data through the October 16, 2026 close.