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Hello, Trendsters! The market is buzzing with optimism, but before we get too comfortable, let’s take a closer look at what’s really going on. While recent gains suggest the bulls are in control, questions remain. Are we truly out of the woods? With the Goldilocks narrative making a comeback and inflation still simmering in the background, it’s clear that we’re walking a fine line between progress and caution.
Today’s newsletter digs into this dynamic, starting with Snap Inc., which is shaping up to be a standout buy in the tech sector. With its Double Bottom formation and bullish indicators, Snap’s technical setup could make it one of the most interesting plays in the current market. Check out the Chart of the Day for more on why we think $12 is in reach. We’ll also cover the latest in Market Moving News, where inflation data and central bank moves are keeping investors on their toes. Plus, we’ve sprinkled in some fun facts and trivia to keep things interesting. Whether you're ready to jump in or staying on the sidelines, there’s plenty to keep an eye on this week. Let’s see what the market has in store! |
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Steady Gains Amidst Inflation Whispers
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The market seems to have found its footing, with the S&P 500 marking its fourth consecutive gain. The rally was broad-based, lifting almost every sector, even as mixed inflation data added a touch of uncertainty.
While the PPI report was in line with expectations, core PPI showed a slightly higher increase, keeping the inflation conversation alive. This, combined with Wednesday's CPI report, seems to have solidified expectations for a cautious Fed rate cut next week, with a series of further reductions to follow.
Treasury yields saw a slight uptick but remained near recent lows, likely influenced by the PPI readings and continued flat jobless claims. Market volatility also eased significantly, with the VIX dipping below its long-term average. Key Takeaways: -
Market sentiment remains positive despite lingering inflation concerns.
- A Fed rate cut next week seems all but certain, with the focus shifting to the pace of future cuts.
- Lower Treasury yields and easing volatility suggest increasing investor confidence.
Potential Strategies: -
Consider maintaining exposure to equities, given the positive market momentum.
- Keep an eye on upcoming economic data releases for further clues on the Fed's path.
- Stay diversified and be prepared for potential market fluctuations as the Fed navigates the complex economic landscape.
The market's current trajectory suggests a cautious optimism. While challenges remain, the overall picture is encouraging. Stay alert, stay adaptable, and seize the opportunities that this dynamic market presents. |
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Inflation's Playing Hide-and-Seek, and the Market's Getting a Little Tired
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Remember that game of hide-and-seek you played as a kid? You know, the one where your friend hid so well you almost gave up looking? Well, it seems like inflation is playing a similar game with the market.
Just when we thought it was on its way out, this week's PPI report gave us a little reminder that it's still lurking somewhere. It's like inflation is hiding behind a tree, peeking out every now and then just to keep us on edge.
The market, on the other hand, is starting to get a little tired of this game. The VIX has calmed down considerably, suggesting that investors are growing weary of the constant uncertainty.
So, what's the lesson here? Don't let your guard down just yet. Inflation might be playing hard to get, but it's still a factor. Keep your eyes peeled for any signs of its return, and be prepared to adjust your investment strategy accordingly. After all, in this market, it pays to be a good detective! |
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SNAP - Is This the 'Snap' Back We've Been Waiting For?cccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccc
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SNAP appears to be setting the stage for a potential breakout. The formation of a double bottom around $8.30, coupled with a strong rebound and a bullish MACD crossover, paints a promising picture.
Historically, such a MACD signal has been a reliable indicator of upward momentum, with the stock typically finding support at the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level. Even if we see a minor pullback, the current levels present an attractive medium-term buying opportunity.
Our target? A cool $12.00. So, keep an eye on SNAP – it might just be time to add a little snap, crackle, and pop to your portfolio. |
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Optimism Reigns as the Market Finds Its Footing
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The market continues its upward trajectory, showcasing resilience with another strong close. While the initial hesitation mirrors the previous day, the bullish momentum remains intact. This consistent strength, coupled with positive market breadth and a surge in new 12-month highs, points towards a potential bull market.
The driving force behind this optimism? A renewed embrace of the Goldilocks economic narrative. Recent inflation data, while slightly hotter than anticipated, has eased fears of a Fed falling behind the curve or an impending recession.
This newfound confidence has propelled the Magnificent Seven to the forefront, further fueled by positive comments from Nvidia's CEO regarding AI infrastructure demand.
However, it's not all smooth sailing. The upcoming Fed rate cut is poised to introduce volatility, shifting the focus to the future trajectory of monetary policy. The economy's health remains a subject of debate, with each new data point under intense scrutiny. Seasonality concerns also linger, and a significant market rally leading up to the rate cut could trigger a "sell-the-news" reaction. The current landscape calls for a balanced approach. While opportunities abound, it's crucial to remain discerning and adaptable. As we progress through the Fed's rate-cutting cycle, expect a gradual emergence of attractive investment prospects. Key Points:
- The market's upward momentum persists despite early hesitations.
- Renewed confidence in the Goldilocks scenario fuels optimism.
- The Fed rate cut and economic data will be key drivers of future market movements.
- Seasonality and potential "sell-the-news" reactions warrant caution.
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A selective and adaptable approach is crucial in this evolving market environment.
The current market environment presents a blend of opportunities and challenges. By staying informed, maintaining a balanced perspective, and focusing on quality investments, you can position yourself for success in this dynamic landscape. |
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Earnings, Analyst Calls, and the Fed's Quiet Period Keep Investors on Edge
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Stock prices danced to the tune of earnings reports and analyst calls today, while the Fed's silence ahead of next week's meeting kept anticipation high.
Signet Jewelers (SIG) saw a dazzling 11% jump on strong earnings, while Micron (MU) took a 4% tumble after a downgrade. Moderna (MRNA) plunged 13% following a sales forecast cut.
Kroger (KR) and Alaska Air (ALK) both enjoyed gains on the back of better-than-expected results, while Walmart (WMT) soared to a new all-time high. Nvidia (NVDA) extended its rally, fueled by its CEO's bullish remarks.
Sector performance was mixed, with tech, communication services, and consumer discretionary leading the charge. Defensive sectors like utilities and real estate lagged behind.
The PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) managed to claw back some losses this week, averting a potential technical breakdown. However, experts warn that any signs of "stickier" inflation could complicate the Fed's path.
Speaking of the Fed, policymakers are keeping mum ahead of next week's meeting, leaving investors to speculate on their reaction to recent economic data. The ECB, meanwhile, is forging ahead with rate cuts, while upcoming meetings by the BoE and BoJ add further intrigue to the global central bank landscape.
Finally, keep an eye on the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment report and August import prices, both due tomorrow. These data points could offer further clues about the state of the economy and inflation expectations. Key Takeaways: -
Corporate earnings continue to be a major driver of stock prices.
- Analyst actions can trigger significant market moves.
- The Fed's upcoming meeting is creating a sense of anticipation and uncertainty.
- Key economic data will be closely watched for any signs of inflation or economic weakness.
Remember, in this dynamic market environment, staying informed and adaptable is crucial. Keep a close eye on these developments and be prepared to adjust your strategies as needed. |
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MARKET MUSINGS & TIME CAPSULE |
Random Musings: The Goldilocks Economy: A Fairytale or Reality? While the market seems to be embracing the "just right" narrative, it's worth remembering that even Goldilocks eventually had to face the bears.
Inflation: The Party Guest Who Won't Leave Just when we thought inflation was on its way out, it decides to crash the party again. Will it ever get the hint?
The Fed's Balancing Act: It's like watching a tightrope walker with the whole market holding its breath. One wrong move, and things could get messy. The Magnificent Seven: Heroes or Villains? These tech giants are leading the charge, but are they setting the market up for a fall? Only time will tell. Seasonality: The Market's Ghost of Christmas Past Will the market succumb to its historical patterns, or will it break the mold this time around?
On this day in history, September 13 September 13, 1929: The Dow Jones Industrial Average reaches its peak before the Great Depression, a stark reminder that even the strongest bull markets can come to an end. September 13, 1959: The Soviet Luna 2 spacecraft becomes the first human-made object to reach the Moon, showcasing the power of innovation and the potential for unexpected breakthroughs.
September 13, 1985: Super Mario Bros. is released in Japan, launching a global gaming phenomenon and demonstrating the enduring appeal of creativity and entertainment.
September 13, 1993: The Oslo Accords are signed, marking a historic step towards peace in the Middle East and highlighting the importance of diplomacy and compromise.
September 13, 2008: The U.S. government takes control of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, underscoring the fragility of financial systems and the need for prudent risk management. |
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As we close out today’s newsletter, here’s a quote that seems especially relevant to the current market atmosphere:
"Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold, put out the bucket, not the thimble." – Charlie Munger
In a market where optimism is driving momentum and stocks like Snap are showing strong potential, it's easy to feel hesitant. But, as we’ve discussed today, some of the best moves come when you take advantage of the right moments with confidence. Whether it's Snap’s bullish signal or the broader market positioning itself ahead of the Fed’s next move, being ready with a bucket rather than a thimble could make all the difference.
So, as we head into a potentially volatile week with big decisions on the horizon, keep your strategy in mind, and when the opportunity presents itself, don’t hesitate to make the most of it. Until next time, Trendsters — let's make the next move count! |
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