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Trendsters, get ready! Today's newsletter challenges the conventional wisdom. Headlines are buzzing about record-low birth rates, sparking a wave of market uncertainty. But before you change your investment strategy, let's take a closer look. Could this demographic shift actually work in our favor?
We'll explore the unexpected ways a shrinking population can impact the long-term trajectory of the stock market. Plus, our Chart of the Day dissects a critical crossroads for ARM stock. Is it poised for a breakout above $103, or are we braced for a downturn? And as always, we'll sprinkle in some market-moving news and perhaps a dash of surprising trivia to keep things interesting. Let's dive in! |
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REPLAY AVAILABLE: $0.25 Cent Trades |
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By clicking the link above you agree to periodic updates from ProsperityPub and its partners (privacy policy)
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Stocks Celebrate a 'Goldilocks' Jobs Report |
The market bulls took charge on Friday, fueled by a jobs report that hit the sweet spot between not too hot, and not too cold. The S&P 500 climbed to a three-week high, cheered by signs that maybe, just maybe, the Fed's aggressive inflation-taming measures are starting to work. Here's where the major benchmarks ended:
- The S&P 500 index rose 63.59 points (1.3%) to 5,127.79, up 0.6% for the week; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) gained 450.02 points (1.2%) to 38,675.68, up 1.1% for the week; the Nasdaq Composite surged 315.37 points (2.0%) to 16,156.33, up 1.4% for the week.
- The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) fell about 7 basis points to 4.50%, down about 16 basis points for the week.
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The Cboe Volatility Index® (VIX) fell 1.19 to 13.49.
The star of the show was weaker-than-expected job growth and a slight cooling of wage increases. This suggests the economy is slowing, which could ease inflationary pressures and pave the way for the Fed to eventually pivot away from its series of interest rate hikes.
Bond traders were clearly impressed, sending Treasury yields tumbling as they priced in the possibility of rate cuts sooner than anticipated. Tech stocks, particularly Apple, added extra fuel to the rally thanks to strong earnings results. What This Means for Traders -
Taking a breather: This report provides a welcome respite after the recent inflation-fueled volatility.
- The Fed Factor: This could bolster the case for a Fed downshift later this year, but it's far too early to declare victory over inflation.
- Sector Watch: Tech remains a bright spot, supported by reassuring earnings and signs of easing cost pressures.
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$25,000 into $109,616 in two months? |
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By clicking the link above you agree to periodic updates from The TradingPub and its partners (privacy policy) |
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Remember the story of "Goldilocks and the Three Bears"? The stock market's been playing its own version lately. Inflation's been too hot, the economy's been too cold, and investors have been searching for that elusive "just right" zone. Friday's jobs report offered a glimmer of hope – maybe that porridge is finally hitting the sweet spot!
But here's the twist: unlike fairy tales, the market rarely ends with "happily ever after." Even with signs the Fed's medicine might be working, there's still a chance for plot twists. Rising interest rates could cause a recessionary roar, or inflation could prove stickier than expected.
So, the question for traders: are you feeling like Goldilocks, ready to feast on a "just right" market? Or are you a cautious bear, bracing for another surprise down the road? |
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ARM Wrestling a Crucial Price Point |
ARM stock is locked in a battle with the $103 resistance zone, and the outcome could make a significant difference in its near-term future. After a recent pullback, shares have rallied, but they've hit a formidable barrier. It's a classic chart setup that demands attention.
Will ARM find the strength to break through this resistance? A decisive move above the $103.14 - $103.82 range could unlock a surge towards its next target of $117.36. That's where the 'golden fib' (Fibonacci retracement) level comes into play, often acting as a magnet for prices.
However, if sellers overpower buyers at this critical juncture, a rejection is likely. This could send ARM tumbling back down toward the lower 'golden fib' support at $73.57. The stakes are high for ARM – this isn't just a minor jostle on the chart. The next few trading sessions could set the tone for the stock's direction in the weeks to come. |
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New Trade Opportunity Forming Inside Tesla |
If you could only trade ONE ticker for the rest of your life… What would it be? MSFT?
AAPL?
AMZN?
For me, it’s hard to say…
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He believes this new Tesla-specific trade is so profound, he’s even made a video for you on how it works.
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The profits and performance shown are not typical, we make no future earnings claims, and you may lose money. The trades expressed are from historical data in order to demonstrate the potential of the system.
By clicking the link above you agree to periodic updates from The TradingPub and its partners (privacy policy)
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Beyond Baby Headlines: Why Birth Rates Don't Rock the Market (Yet)
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News of a record-low U.S. birth rate might send some investors scrambling. But before adjusting your portfolio in a panic, here's a reality check: short-term birth rates and stock prices aren't exactly playmates. Research shows that the current baby count won't meaningfully impact the market for decades. In fact, surprisingly, it might even offer a long-term boost.
The key lies in something called the "MY Ratio." This demographic tracker compares middle-aged workers to their younger counterparts. It turns out that a rising MY Ratio tends to correlate with a stronger stock market. Fewer births today simply tweak the math in the ratio's favor down the line.
Don't get too comfortable just yet, though. The U.S. MY Ratio is already projected to rise for the next decade. A dip is expected later, but that's where any further decline in birth rates could actually amplify an eventual upswing.
Of course, other factors shape our demographic future. Rising female workforce participation could offset some of the birth rate decline as more dual-income households may be inclined to have children. However, affordability challenges like housing costs and rising living expenses remain a counterweight.
The takeaway? Don't let short-term demographic headlines trigger knee-jerk trades. The market's relationship with the stork is a complex and very long-term one. |
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Stocks on the Rise (and Fall)
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Arista Networks (ANET) surged on an analyst upgrade, betting the company benefits from the AI boom. Travel giant Booking Holdings (BKNG) jumped on strong quarterly results. Not so for rival Expedia (EXPE), whose reduced guidance sank its stock. Sweet tooth investors got a boost after Hershey's (HSY) quarterly profits soared. Meanwhile, Live Nation (LYV) is rocking out with solid revenue and bullish concert outlook.
Home sweet home? RE/MAX Holdings (RMAX) climbed as real estate earnings beat forecasts. Trucker XPO (XPO) also shifted into higher gear on its strong quarterly report. Earnings Season Revs Up, Buffett in Focus
Buckle up for a packed earnings week! Over 1,500 companies are due to report, including titans like Disney (DIS), Airbnb (ABNB), and Uber (UBER). Even Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/A) will release results – and host its closely-watched shareholder meeting. The 'Goldilocks' Jobs Report Friday's jobs data, alongside Fed Chair Powell's commentary, helped calm market nerves. The hint of a slowing (but still strong) labor market and easing wage growth was just the reassurance investors wanted. This "not too hot, not too cold" recipe might signal the Fed backing off its aggressive rate hikes.
Eyes on the Fed (and Your Calendar) Monday brings the Fed's Senior Loan Officer Survey, and Friday drops the consumer sentiment report. Keep a close eye on how investors react to these economic signals, as they'll continue shaping the market's dance. |
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MARKET MUSINGS & TIME CAPSULE |
Random Musings Ever wonder why the term "bull market" suggests optimism and "bear market" negativity? Turns out, it mirrors how the animals attack – bulls thrust upwards, bears claw downwards. A reminder that market labels carry some hidden history.
With birth rates in the news, spare a thought for fertility goddess Hera and her Roman counterpart, Juno. They'd likely have some mixed opinions on modern market demographics versus blessings on the home...
"Long-term investing" takes on new meaning when you see the lifespan of some companies. Kikkoman, makers of soy sauce, was founded in 1630. Market survival requires some serious flavor staying power.
Is market timing an art or a science? Legendary investor Jesse Livermore claimed he could "read the tape" (old-school stock tickers). In the age of high-speed trading, wonder if the tape is now just a blur... Market cycles ebb and flow. Just remember, even in the most stagnant pond, something unexpected might decide to ripple the waters. On this day in history, May 6
May 6, 1937: The Hindenburg airship disaster marks a turning point in aviation history. Reminds us even the grandest innovations can succumb to unforeseen risks. May 6, 1954: Roger Bannister breaks the four-minute mile barrier. Some market milestones, once thought impossible, also get shattered with persistence and drive. May 6, 1536: Henry VIII's tumultuous second wife, Anne Boleyn, is imprisoned in the Tower of London. A cautionary tale: volatility and sudden reversals aren't just market phenomena.
May 6, 1994: The Channel Tunnel officially opens, linking England and France. A reminder that ambitious projects often span decades, with their true market impact felt long after the ribbon-cutting. May 6, 1861: Arkansas secedes from the Union during the American Civil War. Sometimes, breaking away from the pack has lasting consequences – for better or worse.
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"If you want to be thought a liar, always tell the truth." – Logan Pearsall Smith The market, much like life in general, is prone to short-sightedness. Focusing on fleeting headlines distracts us from the bigger picture and the potential for surprising turns. Instead, let's channel our inner Roman emperor and philosopher, Marcus Aurelius: "The whole universe is change, and life itself is but what you deem it." Markets will shift, demographics will ebb and flow. It's our own adaptability and focus on true value that ultimately guide our journey as investors. |
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Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange, stocks, options, or futures on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade, you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. This newsletter provides general information that does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. The content of this newsletter or our website must not be construed as personal advice. COE Media is not registered or licensed by any governing body in any jurisdiction to give investing advice or provide investment recommendation.
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