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Alright Trendsters, the market is giving us a bit of a shakeup to start the day. Even the tech giants aren't immune to these pullbacks. But before you start rebalancing your portfolio into cash, let's dive into what's causing this market stir and what it means for your trades. We'll be taking a close look at those inflation numbers and what they mean for the Fed. Remember, any shift in the interest rate landscape can send ripples through the markets. On top of that, we'll unpack why $NVDA is flashing some interesting signals (hint: it's all about that gap) and what it could mean for your tech trades.
And, as always, get ready for a dose of market news, fun facts, and even a bit of historical trivia to round out the day. Let's see where this market pullback takes us! |
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The Weekly Rewind: Tech Titans Reignite the Rally |
The bulls got a much-needed boost this week as tech giants like Alphabet and Microsoft shrugged off a string of recent losses with blockbuster earnings reports. Investors were clearly impressed, sending the Nasdaq soaring and breaking its four-week losing streak.
This tech-inspired turnaround also calmed some of those inflation jitters. Even though the latest PCE data still shows stubborn prices, it wasn't as alarming as some had feared. Perhaps markets are beginning to internalize that the "higher for longer" interest rate scenario is unavoidable.
While mega-cap tech stole the show, sectors across the board enjoyed rebounds as well. Communication services, bruised by Meta's lackluster results, surged back while semiconductors capitalized on the AI and tech optimism. What's Next: Balancing Inflation and Innovation Going forward, the balance between inflation, interest rates, and the potential for growth-fueled momentum in sectors like tech will be key. Keep a close eye on the Fed's upcoming statements, and of course, earnings reports will continue to shape individual stock and sector performance. Strategy Tip If you've been sitting on the sidelines, the pullback combined with this tech-fueled rally could present opportunities. Consider gradually adding back some exposure, but remember, market volatility is still very much a factor. |
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A Silicon Valley Insider and former #1 stock picker in America just released this SHOCKING footage from outside the Tesla Gigafactory, in Austin, Texas. |
And it reveals Elon Musk's “A.I. 2.0.” If you’ve been seeing all the news about A.I. but haven’t heard of A.I. 2.0 yet… It’s not your fault. Wall Street and Silicon Valley are hiding this from you and taking all the profits for themselves. But every American citizen deserves to see what Elon is doing… Because Musk himself confirmed that this new project will outgrow Tesla when he said “[A.I. 2.0] has the potential to be more significant than the vehicle business”
Click here now for all the details. |
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Ever heard of the "dead cat bounce"? No, it's not a macabre feline act... it's that little surge in a stock after a dramatic drop, followed by an even more dramatic fall. Think Meta after its disappointing earnings this week. Ouch.
Speaking of tech giants, did you catch that Alphabet just announced its first-ever dividend? For years, the company's been reinvesting all its profits back into growth. But now, it seems investors are getting a piece of that sweet revenue pie. Talk about a change of heart! Makes you wonder if cashing out some profits is finally in style, even in Silicon Valley.
Speaking of Silicon Valley, did you know Elon Musk is now the world's richest person (again)? It's a title that bounces around between him and Jeff Bezos like a hot potato. Makes you realize that even with the market ups-and-downs, building a wildly successful business can be the ultimate investment strategy. |
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Get those charting tools out – it's time to dissect Nvidia (NVDA). This chipmaker's been doing a volatile past few weeks, and it's not over yet. We're eyeing that unfilled gap around 680. Could it be a lure, tempting bulls right before a second, even bigger plunge?
The classic double-top pattern is flirting with us, hinting at a potential reversal. Remember, these formations aren't always picture-perfect, so don't get too hung up on exact heights. The weekly CCI is flashing those bearish signals, but with markets in rally-mode, we could see NVDA sneak a bit higher before things get truly interesting.
The big question: Is this short-term pain or the start of a more serious slide? That August/September tech pullback season is looming, and if history repeats itself, this chart could get a whole lot wilder. Timing is everything, so watch those gaps and trendlines like a hawk! |
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VWhere Are We in This Pullback? Time to Recalibrate
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Markets are rallying this morning, a welcome reprieve from April's weakness. But let's not get too comfortable. The question isn't whether recent volatility is normal (it is), the question is – are we facing a minor correction or something far more ominous? Inflation: The Stubborn Foe Inflation is refusing to cool down. Hope for a temporary blip has faded; both CPI and PCE metrics are signaling a persistent trend. This is the bad news: it removes a major reason for the Fed to ease off rate hikes. That's why bond yields are spiking, reaching alarming levels. The Rate Cut Mirage Dissolves
Those who bet on multiple rate cuts this year are starting to reconsider. The Fed's message is getting clearer: higher rates for longer. This shifts the very foundation that stocks have been climbing on lately. While the market hasn't fully crashed, many valuations now look overly optimistic. Are Earnings the Answer? Can strong corporate earnings keep the party going? It's time to find out. Let's look at the S&P 500's price-to-earnings ratio. It surged, fueled mostly by sentiment rather than actual earnings growth. As that sentiment erodes, earnings will take center stage. The chart of forward earnings tells the story: they're flatlining with stocks sitting noticeably above them. That's not a comfortable gap. The Consumer: Key to the Puzzle Can the remarkably resilient U.S. consumer keep defying gravity? If they start to falter under the weight of higher rates, hopes of a soft landing will fade. For now, retail sales data suggests the consumer is holding up, but cracks could soon appear. Bottom Line Let's be realistic: this pullback is more likely a sign of market recalibration, not a full-blown bear just yet. An 8% drop is entirely possible, but without major consumer spending collapse, a bigger meltdown remains a risk, not a certainty. Stay alert, focus on the data, and be ready to adjust your approach. |
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Earnings Spotlight: Winners and Losers
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Aon (AON): Tumbled 7% – softer-than-expected Q1 earnings and revenue.
- Colgate-Palmolive (CL): Advanced 1.9% – quarterly results topped expectations.
- Exxon Mobil (XOM): Lost 2.8% – Q1 earnings fell short.
- Intel (INTC): Plunged 9.2% – weak Q2 revenue guidance.
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ResMed (RMD): Rallied 19% – surprise upside in earnings and revenue.
- Roku (ROKU): Shed 10% – cautious on year-over-year growth.
- Skechers (SKX): Jumped 11% – exceeded earnings and revenue forecasts.
- Snap (SNAP): Rocketed 28% – stronger-than-expected quarterly numbers.
- Saia (SAIA): Sank 21% – disappointing Q1 results.
- T. Rowe Price Group (TROW): Added 4.8% – robust quarterly results.
Earnings Season Accelerates
Next week, over 1,100 companies step up to the earnings mic. Amazon, Apple, Coca-Cola, Starbucks, AMD, and McDonald’s – they’re all tuning their financial instruments. Monday’s lineup includes Domino’s Pizza, NXP Semiconductors, ON Semiconductor, and Paramount Global. The show must go on. FOMC Anticipation: No Rate Cut Encore The S&P 500 has dipped 2.9% in April, but it’s still grooving at 6.9% year-to-date. Investor resilience? Partly fueled by AI-driven tech optimism. But beware – economic news hit a few flat notes. GDP grew slower than expected, and inflation? It’s doing the cha-cha above the Fed’s 2% target.
PCE Report Tees Up FOMC Meeting Year-over-year PCE growth? 2.7% – above expectations. Core rate? A spicy 2.8%. Fed Chair Powell won’t cut rates at next week’s FOMC meeting. Instead, he’ll lay breadcrumbs for fewer rate cuts this year. And keep an eye on Treasury auctions – they might ease the yield pressure. |
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MARKET MUSINGS & TIME CAPSULE |
Random Musings
Does a company's earnings report have you more confused than a time-traveling economist? Remember, the future is unwritten, but the past can offer clues. Is the latest inflation data hotter than a bad credit score? At least with a credit score, there are steps to improve. Inflation... well, we're all along for the ride! Does deciding between two stocks have you feeling like Hamlet contemplating the skull? Remember, 'to buy or not to buy' is rarely a life-or-death situation.
Ever wonder if the algorithms driving those AI-powered trades have read Isaac Asimov? Just hope they stick to the three laws of robotics and don't short-circuit civilization. Feeling the pressure to chase every market trend? Relax. Even Warren Buffett sticks with what he knows. Be the tortoise, not the hare!
On this day in history, April 29 April 29, 1986: The Dow Jones Industrial Average breaks through the 1800 mark for the first time. Ah, the quaint old days of triple-digit milestones! April 29, 1945: The Dachau concentration camp is liberated, a stark reminder of the horrors of war and the value of freedom. Let's strive for economies built on collaboration, not conflict.
April 29, 1992: Riots erupt in Los Angeles following the acquittal of police officers in the beating of Rodney King. A somber lesson on the consequences of unchecked power and the fragility of social order. Healthy markets depend on a just society.
April 29, 1913: Gideon Sundback patents the modern zipper. Talk about an invention that streamlined the process! Makes you appreciate those small innovations that grease the wheels of everyday life (and commerce).
April 29, 1770: Captain James Cook and his crew land in Australia at Botany Bay. A moment of expansion and discovery. Let's channel that same spirit of exploration as we look for new opportunities in the markets. |
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"The stock market has a thousand ways to break your heart." – Barton Biggs (Hedge Fund Manager)
Let's face it, today's pullback might be just another fleeting heartbreak as earnings and the tech rally attempt to reassert themselves. Or, it could be the start of a more painful correction, the kind that makes investors reassess lofty valuations.
The truth is, no one truly knows where this market rollercoaster is headed, not even the so-called experts. But that doesn't mean we should throw our hands up in surrender. Prudent investors stay the course, rebalance when needed, and keep one eye on the fundamentals. While no one enjoys the heart-pounding dips, they're part of the thrill ride we call the market. |
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