January 17, 2024

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Trendsters (yes, I'm really making this happen)...


Smell the gunpowder?


The 2024 election race is hotter than a Texas Chili Pepper, and the markets are already feeling the spice. But relax, this issue's your political trading playbook – a roadmap to profits regardless of who takes the Oval Office.


We'll crack the code of campaign promises and dissect the polls like seasoned strategists. Think of it as your X-ray goggles for the market's electoral pulse.


Glimmering beneath the headlines is our "Chart of the Day," a uranium projection that's brighter than a politician's smile (at least until the next fundraising dinner). We'll dive into its depths, unearthing actionable insights for even the most nuclear-averse trader.


And to tickle your funny bone, we've got market-moving news that's juicier than a backroom deal and random tidbits as quirky as a campaign slogan. Grab your ballot (not yet though) and join us on this pre-election adventure – you won't want to miss a single vote, er, I mean, insight.


Today's Market Mood: Moderately Bullish!

The Bear/Bull Meter


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Daily Market Roundup: A Tuesday Tumble with a Twist


Tuesday's trading was a tale of two trends: strong earnings numbers colliding with rising Treasury yields and cautious Fed talk. The result? A broad-based stock market retreat, leaving investors slightly disoriented but not necessarily devastated.


Let's dissect the drama. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) dipped near a four-week low despite Goldman Sachs (GS) exceeding expectations. But the cheers were muted by Fed Governor Waller's dampening of rate cut excitement. He hinted at a slow and steady approach, shattering dreams of quick monetary policy relief. This, naturally, sent the 10-year Treasury yield rocketing back above 4%, acting like a wet blanket on risk appetite.


Whispers of downwardly revised earnings estimates for Q4 2023 and H1 2024 added fuel to the bearish fire. Banks and energy sectors felt the heat, wilting under the combined pressure of higher yields and oil's price dip. Even the usually resilient semiconductors couldn't quite escape the downturn, though they managed to eke out a modest gain.


The silver lining? This might be just a temporary blip. Yes, Tuesday's tumble wasn't pretty, but it doesn't spell market doom and gloom. Consider it a healthy correction, a chance for valuations to readjust after a prolonged climb. It could even be a buying opportunity for the brave (and possibly foolhardy) among us.


Strategy Snippets:

  • Value plays: With growth stocks taking a hit, consider value-oriented sectors like financials and utilities, potentially less vulnerable to rising rates.
  • Earnings watch: Be selective in your stock picks, focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and solid earnings prospects despite headwinds.
  • Cash cushion: Maintain a healthy cash buffer to weather potential market volatility and take advantage of buying opportunities that may arise.

Trendsters(gotta keep this consistent), keep an eye on earnings releases, monitor the Fed's tap-dancing on rates, and remember: volatility doesn't have to translate to panic. 



Market Mischief: Hold My Uranium, I'm Going In!


Remember that scene in Jurassic Park where Dennis Nedry sneaks off to steal dinosaur embryos? Turns out, that's kind of how Tuesday felt for some folks trading uranium futures.


Yields jumped, the Fed sounded hawkish, and stocks slumped. But amidst the market mayhem, uranium futures surged, defying gravity like a velociraptor on a sugar rush. Why? Well, clean energy whispers and talk of supply constraints have some betting on a nuclear renaissance.


The next time someone asks if you're investing in uranium, just answer with a wink and a, "Life finds a way... to make your portfolio glow." Just don't forget the safety goggles.



Chart of the Day

Uranium Simmers, Waiting to Boil Over


Forget flatlining EKGs, today's chart features a uranium price projection with a heartbeat. Take a look at that "cup and handle" formation: a classic bullish pattern hinting at a potential breakout, fueled by a volume surge on the one-month chart that puts a rocket under URA's backside. 


Underpinning this potential price pop are some juicy fundamentals. Clean energy's siren song has nations swooning, eyeing nuclear as a carbon-lite option. This could crank up demand for uranium, while supply might not keep up the tango. Geopolitical issues in key producer regions like Kazakhstan could tighten the supply squeeze further, adding fuel to the price fire.


And let's not forget the elephant in the nuclear reactor: Russia. With the Ukraine conflict simmering, any sanctions or disruptions affecting Russian supplies could send uranium prices into orbit. Europe's energy crunch could also push them towards nuclear, adding another log to the bullish bonfire.


BofA sees spot prices hitting $105 this year and a sizzling $115 in 2025. How high can it go? Well, that depends on how quickly the world ditches the vodka for the neutrons. Demand for nuclear fuel is projected to skyrocket, reaching 83,840 tonnes by 2030 and a whopping 130,000 tonnes by 2040. Not bad for an industry once left for dust by renewables.


So, Trendsters, keep your eye on this nuclear near-future play. With the right catalysts, URA could be the hottest stock on the market, not just figuratively, but literally. Just don't go full Homer Simpson at the reactor core – trade wisely, and let's watch this uranium story unfold, one radioactive penny at a time.


Bonus: Remember that scene in The Simpsons where Homer accidentally becomes the plant's safety inspector? Let's hope your uranium investments don't end up like that. Stick to the Trendsters' expertise, and you'll be glowing with success, not radioactive fallout.


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Election Season Shenanigans: Will Your Portfolio Win Big?


Forget stale campaign slogans and mudslinging – let's talk realpolitik for your portfolio. With another US election looming, the "Presidential Cycle" theory emerges from the shadows, whispering promises of market clairvoyance based solely on the President's term. Sounds too good to be true, right? Well, maybe.


This theory suggests the first two years of a President's reign, burdened by ambitious policy promises, act as a dampener on markets. Then, in a desperate bid for re-election, year three and four morph into a fiscal free-for-all, propelling stocks skyward. While history whispers some truth in this narrative, relying solely on such whimsical cycles is akin to basing your vote on hairspray volume.


But amidst the political noise, some real signals flicker. Look beyond campaign theatrics and focus on macroeconomic trends. For instance, the dollar's direction plays a crucial role. Gold thrives on a weakening dollar, while commodities bask in its sunshine. Likewise, REITs dance to the tune of interest rates, flourishing when they dip and wilting when they rise.


The good news? The past three months have been a market fiesta, with most asset classes clinking champagne glasses (except commodities, still nursing a hangover). REITs, sensitive to falling rates, led the charge, soaring over 16%. Equity styles followed suit, with Large Cap Growth and Small Cap Value moving to the top of the performance charts.


While the Presidential Cycle might offer a fun parlor trick, don't let it be your portfolio's sole compass. Instead, stay grounded in fundamental realities – track economic indicators, decipher policy implications, and build a diversified portfolio that weathers any political storm. Remember, the right investment strategy isn't about who wins the election, but who wins the fight for your financial future.


Key Takeaways:

  • The Presidential Cycle theory offers a glimpse, not a guarantee, of market trends.
  • Focus on real macroeconomic drivers like the dollar and interest rates for more reliable insights.
  • Diversify your portfolio to weather any political and economic turbulence.

Market Movers: Analyst Whispers, Earnings Whirlwinds, and Red Flag Signals


Bullish Buzz:

  • AMD: Soaring 8.3% on a chip-tastic upgrade from Barclays, predicting an AI "second wave" that'll propel the stock to $200.
  • Carrols Restaurant Group: Burger King franchise king feasts on a 12% jump after Restaurant Brands swallows it whole for $1 billion (cash, please!).
  • Dollar General: Retail therapy pays off as Morgan Stanley elevates the stock, expecting lower rates to boost earnings.
  • Goldman Sachs: Wall Street's golden boy shines after exceeding quarterly revenue expectations, climbing 0.7%.
  • JetBlue Airways: Takes flight following a court victory blocking its Spirit Airlines merger, sending Spirit plummeting 47%.

Bearish Bites:

  • Apple: Discounts in China sour investors' taste, causing a 1.2% dip.
  • Boeing: FAA audit opens a can of worms, prompting Wells Fargo to downgrade the planemaker and send shares down nearly 8%.
  • Morgan Stanley: Earnings miss overshadows strong revenue, dragging the stock down 4.2%.
  • PayPal Holdings: Apple Pay's shadow looms large, leading Mizuho to downgrade the digital payments giant and trim its price target, causing a 4.2% slide.

Economic Enigma:

  • Earnings whispers: More S&P 500 companies than usual are muttering "negative" guidance, potentially dampening sentiment.
  • Empire State Manufacturing Survey: New York manufacturers paint a gloomy picture, plunging to their lowest level since May 2020.

On the Radar:

  • Retail Sales: December data could offer clues about consumer spending resilience.
  • Fed Watch: Investors still betting on a rate cut by March, despite hawkish signals from the Fed.

Trendster Takeaway: Conflicting whispers from earnings booths and the economic jungle keep the market on edge. Stay nimble, navigate the data deluge, and keep a keen eye on that Fed FOMC meeting. In this whirlwind, opportunity beckons for savvy investors who can decipher the signals and chart their course with prudence.



Random Musings and the Time Machine


Random Musings:


Uranium on Fire: That chart's glowing hotter than a reactor core! But remember, even nuclear trends can fizzle out – invest with cool heads, not radioactive FOMO.


Presidential Portfolios: Crystal Ball or Coffee Grounds? Can you predict the market with electioneering? The Presidential Cycle theory might be fun, but don't brew your portfolio based on campaign promises. Diversify with your own hard-boiled logic, not someone else's ballot box predictions.


Rate Cut Seesaw: The Fed's playing a balancing act – keeping rates high to tame inflation, but giving hints of potential cuts to boost the economy. Investors, remember, the seesaw can tip at any moment. Hold onto your helmets, it's gonna be a bumpy ride.


Tech Titan Takes a Slide: Apple offering iPhone discounts? That's like seeing a Ferrari at a junkyard. It might be a good deal, but it's a sign the market's not purring like a V12 engine. Keep an eye on tech bellwethers – their cracks often reflect wider market fissures.


Burger King Bites Off More Than It Can Chew?: Carrols getting swallowed by the Whopper empire? It's a reminder that even in tough times, some brands keep expanding their territory. Think strategically about your investments – bet on companies with staying power, not just the current flavor of the month.



On This Day in History, January 17:


1776: Adam Smith Publishes "The Wealth of Nations": A timeless tome on economic principles, reminding us that even in the digital age, understanding market fundamentals remains the bedrock of sound investment decisions.


1788: Georgia joins the U.S. party, adding another brick to the foundation of our financial federation. Remember, Trendsters, building wealth takes time and a solid foundation – just like building a nation.


1896: X-rays take their first shot, revolutionizing medical diagnosis. Similarly, technical analysis can X-ray market trends, helping you see through the financial fog.


1998: Google gets plugged in, forever changing the way we find information. Likewise, staying informed about market moves is crucial for savvy investing.


2004: Facebook opens its doors, connecting us all online. Remember, Trendsters, financial connections matter too – network with mentors, learn from experts, and build your investment community.


The Final Ledger


The market shuffle continues, with bullish stumbles and bearish retreats. Whispers from earnings booths and riddles from the economic jungle kept investors hopping on one foot, while uranium's radioactive glow ignited potential portfolio fuel.


The fancy footwork takes a backseat to calculated steps and a steady gaze. Embrace the chaos, navigate the data deluge like a seasoned explorer, and keep your sights on the prize.


As Henry Ford famously said, "Coming together is a beginning; keeping together is progress; working together is success." So, collaborate with your research, connect with your risk tolerance, and remember, the trendiest move is the one that propels you towards financial victory.



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