Grab on to something traders, because the market's been riding a mechanical bull all year, and it ain't slowing down anytime soon. 2023 was supposed to be the bears' buffet, but instead, they became the main course. Now, with eyes on 2024, the question burns: was this just a bull stampede, or are we in for a full-blown rodeo?
Today's Traders on Trend is your backstage pass to the financial fiesta. We'll be dissecting the "Bears Get Mauled" narrative in our opening act, then high-fiving the bulls with a technical breakdown of Marathon Digital's chart – talk about an inverse head and shoulders fit for a champion! And because no good shindig is complete without a sprinkle of the unexpected, we've got some market morsels that'll leave you saying, "Whaaat?"
So, grab your metaphorical margaritas and settle in, partners. This ain't your average financial forecast – it's a front-row seat to the market's wildest dance yet. Sponsored by The Trading Pub, where the only thing hotter than the trends are the deals. Let's do this.
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Today's Market Mood: EXTREMELY BULLISH!
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The Daily Market Roundup: Santa Rally Still Jinglin', But Brace for Bumpy Stockings
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Wall Street's holiday cheer continued its rampage Thursday, with the Dow Jones waltzing back near record highs and the S&P 500 shimmying to a one-percent surge. Falling Treasury yields were the spiked eggnog fueling the party, whispering sweet nothings about Fed rate cuts and a soft economic landing. Semiconductors, led by Micron's chip-tastic earnings surprise, did the robot, while small caps boogied to the beat of broad-based gains.
Volatility, that party pooper, reared its ugly head, sending indicators flashing "caution tape yellow" after a month-long rally pushed optimism into the "fruitcake-fruitful" zone. Bond yields, still on their downward slide, might just do a tequila slam and spike higher, throwing the whole market into a conga line of confusion.
So, what's the holiday investing game plan? Our strategists suggest a sideways shuffle through the rest of the year and into early 2024. Think of it as practicing the waltz while keeping an eye on the punch bowl – things could get messy if rates take a tango of their own.
Key takeaways:
Stocks rallied, fueled by falling yields and hopes for a soft landing.
Micron's strong earnings boosted semiconductors and small caps.
Volatility spiked, hinting at potential bumps ahead.
Trading tips:
Consider taking profits or reducing risk exposure to protect against potential volatility.
Stay informed about economic data and Fed policy decisions.
Employ stop-loss orders to manage risk.
Remember, even the jolliest markets can have their off days.
Happy trading, and may your portfolio be merry and bright (and well-hedged)!
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Heard on the Trading Floor: "Santa Rally or Sugar Crash? Depends if Grandma Spiked the Eggnog with QE!"
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Turns out, the only thing spiking higher than egg prices this holiday season is the stock market. Dow's flirtin' with new highs, bears are hibernating faster than squirrels on Red Bull, and even the Grinch is humming carols.
But before you start jinglin' your tendies under the mistletoe, remember: Wall Street's got a history of sugar crashes that'd make even Willy Wonka nervous. So, while you're sippin' spiked eggnog (courtesy of our sponsor, Trading Pub!), keep an eye on those bond yields. If they start breakin' dancin' like Santa's elves after too much milk and cookies, well, let's just say your portfolio might be the one getting stuffed in the stocking this year.
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$MARA Ready to Moon? Inverted Head and Shoulders Breakout Says Yes
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The technical charts for Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA) are showing some serious bullish potential, giving investors a chance to catch a big wave. A clear inverted head and shoulders pattern has broken above the neckline, indicating a possible breakout and making the market participants shout “Surf’s up!”
This bullish sign points to a possible rally towards the first resistance zone around $33.45 – a key level to watch in the short term. But don’t forget to be careful. If the price loses steam, a pullback to the neckline at $23.00 is likely. That’s why using a stop-loss order below the neckline is smart to protect your downside.
Ultimately, it’s up to you to decide if you want to trade MARA right now. If you’re feeling adventurous, you can jump in right away. If you’re more cautious, you can wait for a possible retest of the neckline for confirmation before opening a position.
No matter what your risk appetite is, it’s vital to have a solid trading plan and follow good risk management practices. With close monitoring and proper risk control, you can ride the current technical wave of MARA and make some profits.
Key Takeaways:
Bullish inverted head and shoulders pattern breakout confirmed. Initial resistance zone spotted at $33.45. Stop-loss placement suggested below the neckline at $23.00. Bullish outlook, but risk awareness needed.
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Bears, Put Down Your Shovels, the Bull Market's Here to Stay (Probably)
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Market Stampede - Stomp or Join?
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Now is a bad to be a stock market bear, because this bull market's got legs. We know, you called 2023 a bear feast, but guess who's eating their words now? While the easy gains might be gone, we still see room to run in 2024.
But it's time to ditch the doomsday forecasts and embrace some hard truths:
Low-hanging fruit is gone: The S&P 500 at 22.6 times trailing P/E has already priced in much good news. Futures? They're betting on more rate cuts than the Fed itself. Tech and AI? Maybe a bit frothy.
Expect moderate gains: 2024 won't be a repeat of 2023's 22.4% rally. Think 5%-10%.
Passive might not pay: This year, active investing will reign supreme for generating alpha. Buy-and-hold might need to adjust expectations.
But before you bury yourselves in hibernation, there's hope:
The recession whispers are overblown: Inflation's tamed, the Fed can cut rates if needed, and a soft landing is within reach. This time, it's different (we think).
Housing: not the crash you expected: Pent-up demand and healthy job markets are keeping the housing market afloat. Residential REITs, homebuilders, and real estate asset managers could be 2024's winners.
Consumer king keeps spending: Strong job markets and resilient wealth effects are fueling private consumption, the backbone of the US economy.
Don't chase, pick laggards: Missed the S&P 500 rally? Residential REITs, biotech, and healthcare offer opportunities for latecomers.
The bottom line? The bears underestimated the market's resilience. Sitting on the sidelines is risky, especially when missing the best days can halve your returns. Time to ditch the negativity and find that real investing edge. You know, the one that doesn't require a crystal ball.
So, bears, put down your shovels, the bull market's got a long runway. Time to hop on or get trampled by the stampede.
Key takeaways:
Moderate gains likely in 2024, not another year of record highs.
Active investing key for generating alpha.
Recession fears overblown, soft landing in sight.
Housing market not crashing - opportunities in laggards like REITs.
Stop trying to time the market, compound your returns instead.
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Market Movers: A Mixed Bag with a Side of Fed Guessing Game
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Earnings Winners & Losers:
BlackBerry (BB): Took a 13% tumble after whiffing on revenue guidance. Seems even BB doesn't know what the metaverse is made of.
CarMax (KMX): Vroom, vroom! Beat earnings and reinstated buybacks, sending shares up 5.2%. Used car market still humming.
Carnival Corp. (CCL): Cruising into calmer waters? Smaller-than-expected loss lifted CCL 6.2%. Maybe all those sea shanties calmed investors.
The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE): Analyst upgrade and "consistent transaction outperformance" (fancy talk for more cheesecake sales) gave CAKE a 2.3% rise. Who doesn't love a slice after a bad day?
Salesforce (CRM): Data Cloud hype! Morgan Stanley upgrade and price target boost sent CRM 2.7% soaring. Everyone's prepping for AI overlords, apparently.
Spotify Technology (SPOT): Renewed focus on "financial discipline" (aka, less spending on avocado toast) led Pivotal Research to upgrade SPOT 2.2%. Turns out, music streaming can be profitable!
Paramount Global (PARA) & Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD): Merger whispers had them waltzing in opposite directions – PARA down 2.8%, WBD off 1.5%. Is Hollywood ready for a mega-studio showdown?
Paychex (PAYX): Missed revenue target, sending shares down 7%. Payroll processing not as easy as it looks, folks.
Nike on Deck:
Nike (NKE): Earnings tonight. Can the Swoosh regain its mojo after that September stumble?
Fed Follies:
Mixed economic data couldn't shake the market's belief in a Fed pivot – even with GDP and core inflation dropping. Investors dreaming of rate cuts like it's a tropical vacation.
Philly Fed manufacturing survey's negativity didn't dampen the party either. Maybe someone spiked the eggnog with optimism?
Market pricing in five to six rate cuts next year might be wishful thinking, analysts warn. Don't count your chickens (or rate cuts) before they hatch.
Futures still expect the Fed to hold steady in January, but March's rate cut probability just jumped. This guessing game is giving everyone whiplash.
Bond market volatility might be the Grinch who steals Christmas if rate cuts don't pan out. Buckle up, buttercups!
PCE in the Spotlight:
Friday brings the PCE price report, the Fed's inflation BFF. Core PCE expected to edge up slightly, keeping the central bank's holiday cheer in check.
In a nutshell:
Market's got one eye on earnings, the other on the Fed's crystal ball. Mixed data can't break the rate cut fever dream, but a reality check might be coming soon. Stay tuned, folks, this rollercoaster's just getting started.
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Random Musings and the Time Machine
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Random Musings
If the stock market were a season, it might be spring – unpredictable weather, but a time of growth and renewal. Just don't forget your umbrella for those sudden showers!
Ever think about how 'bullish' and 'bearish' might confuse an actual bull and bear? "So you're telling me, when I'm optimistic, I'm a human in a charging bull costume, but when I'm pessimistic, I'm in a bear suit moping around?"
Investing tip: Diversification isn't just a strategy, it's a philosophy. Like a well-balanced diet, it keeps your financial health in check.
Wonder if there's a parallel universe where the bears nailed it in 2023, and now they're writing about 'what if' scenarios? Probably they're sipping honey-flavored victory tea.
Imagine if stocks came with weather forecasts. "Today, expect partly cloudy skies over Tech with a chance of sudden gains in Healthcare."
On this day in history, December 22:
1990: The first internet search engine, Archie, is launched. Remember AltaVista? Yeah, us neither. Google, you're the MVP.
1989: The Iomega Zip drive is released, revolutionizing data storage (and floppy disk anxiety) for a brief, glorious moment. Remember those satisfying clicks?
2004: Facebook launches, forever changing the way we connect (and stalk our exes). Just remember, social media likes don't pay the bills (unless you're an influencer, of course).
2010: WikiLeaks releases the "Cablegate" documents, sparking global controversy and reminding us that information (and leaks) can be powerful tools. Just ask the bears who missed the market rally.
2023: Bitcoin price dips below $16,000, sending crypto enthusiasts into a brief hibernation. Don't worry, like any good roller coaster, it'll probably go up again (eventually).
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So, that's the market this fine Friday before Christmas. Bulls still basking, bears still grumbling, and the Fed keeping everyone guessing like a sphinx with a bad case of laryngitis. Remember, friends, even the best crystal balls get cloudy sometimes.
The secret to success? Embrace the uncertainty, invest wisely, and maybe throw in a slice of cheesecake for good measure.
After all, as the sage Warren Buffett once said, "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful." But please, don't interpret that as a green light for a second helping of eggnog. Your portfolio might not forgive you for that one.
Until next time, stay informed, stay invested, and stay merry!
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