According to cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen, the price of Ethereum ETH/USD might fall by more than 65% during the bear market due to at least one more big economic issue.

Cowen claimed in a strategy session to his over 779,000 YouTube subscribers that the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization may collapse more than 65% from its present high of $1,180.

“I do think you’re still looking at a run lower here on Ethereum’s valuation against the U.S. Dollar. I believe that the $400-$600 level is an excellent place to start looking for the same type of value that we saw in the previous cycle.“

Cowen is also keeping a close eye on the social risk metric, which assesses the retail interest in the market by tallying the number of people who watch cryptocurrency YouTube channels and follow Twitter accounts devoted to digital assets.

Ethereum Preparing For a Major Sell-Off Event

The social risk index for Ethereum, according to Cowen, implies that ETH is poised for another sell-off event.

“I still believe Ethereum will eventually see cheaper costs. The wording on the tiniest bit of paper in the world. Social risk has finally reached new lows. “When social risk decreases, Bitcoin dominance increases,” he explained.

“As a social risk falls, as it did here in 2018, that’s where Ethereum took its next leg down,” he added.

Furthermore, as the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish monetary policy, Cowen sees the probability of a recession as an additional unfavorable element.

“I recognize that a $600 Ethereum or even a $400 Ethereum represents a 50% or more correction from these levels. But I believe there is reason to believe it might happen, not simply from a price and technical standpoint,” Cowen argues.

“And I know there’s sort of the underlying idea of all the Ethereum that’s been burned and such. On the other hand, we are on the verge of a recession. If a recession is on the way, risk assets like cryptocurrencies are likely to suffer,” he says.

Hurdles on Price Action

Moving on to the technical charts, the price of Ethereum has moved into a negative zone below the $1,250 pivot mark.

ETH gained bearish momentum below the $1,200 mark and the 100 hourly simple moving average, comparable to bitcoin.

The price increased and tested the $1,150 support level.

The bears made two tries to send ether price below the $1,150 support but failed.

The recent low was approximately $1,150, and the price began a short-term upward correction.

There was a break above the $1,165 resistance level.

Furthermore, on the hourly chart of ETH/USD, there was a break above a significant negative trend line with resistance near $1,165.

Ether price is presently finding resistance between $1,200 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

It is around the 23.6% Fib retracement of the main slide from the $1,350 swing high to the $1,150 low.

The first big resistance is located near $1,220.

Closing over the $1,220 resistance level could signal the start of a decent comeback wave.

The next big resistance level might be $1,250, or the 50% Fib retracement level of the main slide from the swing high of $1,350 to the low of $1,150.

If the bulls cross the $1,250 barrier, the price can move toward $1,300.

Any further advances might push the price up to the $1,350 resistance level.

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