Even Wall Street’s top analysts struggle to forecast a stock’s price a year from today. However, for investors who bought into the high predictions surrounding crypto-related equities at the start of this year, those estimates now appear to be pipe dreams.

The average return required to attain their 12-month price objective from Jan. 1 for ten crypto companies tracked by Bloomberg having at least three analyst price targets at the start of 2022 is approximately 1,350%. To put it in context, it took Amazon.com Inc. more than eight years – from 2013 to its record high in late 2021 – to return that amount to investors.

To hit their average 12-month analyst price prediction from the beginning of this year, shares of cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase Global Inc. would need to rise 782% from their current level. Still, it pales in comparison to Stronghold Digital Mining, Inc., which began the year with a target of $41.25 and is now trading for less than a dollar per share, requiring a 5,492% increase to reach that level.

The main cause of the unbalanced estimates is this year’s rapid drop in the price of Bitcoin, which hit 65% following the bankruptcy of Sam Bankman-FTX. Fried’s In early November 2021, the world’s greatest digital asset reached a record high of about $69,000, generating a surge of bullish excitement for almost anything related to space.

Nonetheless, analysts were sluggish to respond to Bitcoin’s sudden drop. The average analyst price estimate for Coinbase grew by almost 5% in the two months following Bitcoin’s all-time high. During the same time frame, Bitcoin fell more than 38% and Coinbase’s stock price fell roughly 37%. Analysts have reduced their 12-month price objective for the cryptocurrency exchange by an average of 80% since then.

BTIG analyst Mark Palmer became the latest to downgrade his outlook for crypto bank Silvergate Capital, lowering his base case prediction to $51 per share on Tuesday, down from the $135 price at which he launched the stock in August.

“Our new price target reflects our decreased forecasts for digital asset customer deposits on the Silvergate Exchange Network in the aftermath of FTX’s failure and amid the ongoing ‘crypto winter,'” Palmer wrote in a note to clients.

Nonetheless, Palmer maintained his buy rating on the stock, calling it “extremely inexpensive,” while noting that the share price loss “has been attributable in part to a broad lack of understanding of the company, its balance sheet, status as a regulated bank, the SEN, and the SEN Leverage program.”

He is not alone in keeping his bullish conviction. Silvergate’s current average price target, which has dropped more than 80% this year, expects the stock to approximately double its present level over the next year.

It’s a similar tale to other crypto stocks. The average 12-month return from present prices is around 165% among the 10 companies tracked by Bloomberg, compared to almost 110% at the start of this year.

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